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European confidence in the economic outlook unexpectedly worsened in February after the euro region’s recovery almost stalled in the fourth quarter.

An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 nations using the euro slipped to 95.9 from a revised 96 in January, the European Commission in Brussels said today. The economic recovery may fail to gather strength for most of 2010, the commission said in a separate report.

European domestic demand remains weak and it’s not yet clear to what extent the euro region will benefit from a global recovery, the commission said. As governments seek to bolster the recovery, they also are trying to stem investor concern about widening budget deficits in Greece and other nations, which is pushing up bond yields.

“There are still some dark clouds in the air,” European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said today at a press conference in Brussels. “Clearly, turning the European economy back on a strong and sustainable path is now our overriding objective.”

The February drop in the confidence index was the first in 11 months. Economists had projected an increase to 96.4 from a previously reported January reading of 95.7, according to the median of 25 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

The euro declined against the dollar and was at $1.3489 as of 1:12 p.m. in London, down 0.4 percent. The yield on the German 10-year bond fell 2 basis points to 3.11 percent.

Cautious Outlook

The German economy, Europe’s largest, may fail to grow in the three months through March before expanding 0.3 percent in the following two quarters, the commission forecast. France may grow 0.4 percent in the first quarter and stall in the second. The U.K., which isn’t part of the euro area, is seen expanding 0.2 percent in both quarters.

The commission sees the euro-area economy expanding 0.7 percent this year after a 4 percent contraction in 2009, unchanged from its previous forecast in November. In the fourth quarter, the economy expanded just 0.1 percent.

Carrefour SA doesn’t “see any change in the European environment for the next six months at least,” Chief Executive Officer Lars Olofsson said on Feb. 19, after Europe’s largest retailer reported a 70 percent drop in full-year profit.

Separate data today showed that loans to households and companies in Europe declined in January from a year earlier after the economic expansion curbed demand for credit. German unemployment increased for a second month in February.

Deficit Woes

Concern about Greece’s ability to finance its deficit and debt has roiled financial markets since the government revealed it had a budget gap of 12 guaranteed approval cash loans.7 percent of GDP last year. That’s more than four times the limit allowed for countries using the euro and the highest in the 27-nation EU.

Standard & Poor’s said late yesterday that it may lower its BBB+ rating on Greece by the end of March and Moody’s Investors Service said today that it may reduce its A2 grade in a few months.

The commission said its deficit forecasts remain “broadly unchanged” from its November assessment, when it projected the region’s average budget gap would widen to 6.9 percent of GDP in 2010. All euro-area nations will breach EU deficit limits this year and next, the commission forecast.

It also said there’s a possibility that the impact of sliding sovereign bonds could be “broader, weighing further on the recovery” by pushing up financing costs.

Euro-Area Inflation

Euro-area inflation may accelerate to 0.8 percent in the current quarter and 1.3 percent in the second quarter, according to the commission. For the full year, the commission sees inflation averaging 1.1 percent, compared with 0.3 percent in 2009. In the confidence report, a gauge of consumers’ price expectations over the next 12 months rose to the highest since March 2009.

The European Central Bank, which aims to keep inflation just below 2 percent, earlier this month kept borrowing costs at a record low of 1 percent. The Frankfurt-based central bank will decide next month on a further “gradual” phasing-out of emergency measures introduced to fight the economic crisis, ECB council member George Provopoulos said.

“It’s premature to talk about a self-sustaining, jobs- creating recovery,” said Martin Van Vliet, an economist at ING Group in Amsterdam. The confidence data “highlight the need for the ECB to tread carefully in unwinding unconventional stimulus and to keep interest rates firmly on hold for the time being.”

Companies across Europe are already seeking ways to expand in faster-growing economies to help boost sales. Paris-based Pernod Ricard SA, the world’s second-largest liquor maker, said on Feb. 18 that sales from China will shortly overtake those in Spain, and emerging markets such as Russia are “starting to turn around.”

“The question is how robust the global cycle will prove to be and how much EU economies will benefit from it,” the commission said. “A rather cautious export outlook is therefore warranted.”

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U.S. venture investment activity in 2009 was as low as its been since 1997, according to a report from the National Venture Capital Association and PricewaterhouseCoopers.

The $17.7 billion invested was down 37 percent from 2008 and the 2,795 deals was down by 30 percent.

There was $6.98 billion invested in Silicon Valley companies, about 40 percent of the U.S. total, down from $10.7 billion in 2008. That is the lowest valley total since the end of the tech bust in 2003 when only $6.4 billion was invested.

The number of deals in the Bay Area dropped to 863 from 1,232 in 2008.

By sector, the report said:

— Biotechnology investing declined in 2009 by 19 percent in both dollars and deals, but was the largest investment sector for the year in terms of dollars with $3.5 billion going into 406 deals.

— The medical device sector fell 27 percent in dollars and 19 percent in deals in 2009, finishing the year as the third largest sector with $2.5 billion going into 309 deals.

— The life sciences sector (biotech and medical devices combined) accounted for 34 percent of all venture capital dollars invested in 2009 compared to 28 percent in 2008 fast cash advance.

— In the software sector, venture capitalists invested $3.1 billion into 619 deals, a 40 percent decline in dollars and a 35 percent decline in deals from 2008. Software was the largest single industry category in terms of deal volume and second largest behind biotechnology in terms of dollars.

— Clean technology investing saw a significant decline in 2009 with $1.9 billion invested in 185 deals. This is a 52 percent decrease in dollars and a 31 percent decline in deal volume from 2008.

— Investing in Internet-specific companies dropped 39 percent to $2.9 billion. There were 629 deals in 2009, down 30 percent.

The industries with the biggest declines were telecommunications (down 67 percent); semiconductors (down 53 percent); and industrial/energy (down 50 percent). The media and entertainment industry decreased 32 percent in terms of dollars and 38 percent in terms of deals with $1.2 billion going into 251 deals in 2009.

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Fluke Networks said it’s purchased ClearSight Networks of Fremont, Calif., which makes computer networking analysis tools, for an undisclosed price.

Everett-based Fluke installs and certifies the testing, monitoring and analysis of copper, fiber and wireless networks.

“ClearSight’s network analysis solutions maximize network engineers’ ability to actively monitor critical links carrying high volumes of network traffic for performance bottlenecks, security anomalies and intermittent disruptions,” said Arif Kareem, president, Fluke Networks, in a statement.

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Personal income posted its largest gain in half a year in November and spending by individuals rose for a second straight month, according to government data released Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said income climbed by 0.4%, or $49.7 billion, during the month, after an upwardly revised 0.3% rise in October. That was the biggest gain since May, when it rose 1.5%. The figure was still below a consensus estimate of a 0.5% rise collected by Briefing.com.

Spending by individuals rose 0.5% last month, or $47.9 billion, below analysts’ expectations of a 0.7% hike. Personal spending was up 0 emergency payday loan.6% in October.

Personal savings totaled $521.1 billion in November, or 4.7% of disposable income, compared to $516.7 billion in October.

The report came one day after the government said that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, grew 2.2% in the third quarter.

Tuesday’s report showed that consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the nation’s economy, was weaker than previously thought. 

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A key measure of consumer confidence gained slightly in November, snapping a two-month declining streak, a research group said Tuesday.

The Conference Board, the New York-based research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 49.5 in November from an upwardly revised 48.7 in October.

Economists were expecting the index to dip to 47.5, according to a Briefing.com consensus survey. The figure, which is based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households, is closely watched because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity.

The overall index remains at historically low levels. A reading above 90 indicates the economy is solid, and 100 or above signals strong growth.

Despite the modestly upbeat figure, Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board, said "consumers are entering the holiday season in a very frugal mood."

The index component that evaluates consumers’ judgment of the present situation was virtually unchanged, slipping to 21 in November from 21.1 the previous month. The measure stands at the lowest level since the 17.5 measured in February 1983.

Consumers’ assessment of the job market also continued to deteriorate. The percentage of those claiming that jobs are currently hard to get reached a new high of 49.8%, while the number of consumers claiming that jobs are "plentiful" hit a new low at 3.2%.

Employers continued to cut jobs from their payrolls in October, as the unemployment rate rose to 10.2% and hit another 26-year high last month, according to a report from the Labor Department.

The percentage of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined to 10% from 10.7%.

Despite their current outlook, however, consumers are optimistic about a recovery.

The expectation index, which measures consumers’ outlook over the next few months, climbed to 68 payday loan no fax no credit check.5 from 67 last month.

Franco said the "moderate improvement was a result of a decrease in the percent of consumers expecting business and labor market conditions to worsen, as opposed to an increase in the percent of consumers expecting conditions to improve."

While the percentage of those expecting the job market to improve edged down to 15.2% from 16.8%, the percentage of consumers expecting fewer jobs dropped to 23.1% from 26.1%.

Likewise, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement in business conditions over the next six months dropped to 20% from 20.8%, but those expecting conditions to worsen decreased to 15.1% to 18.2%.

But even the "underlying data is abysmal," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo.

"Fewer people think things will get worse, which isn’t very comforting. You’d have to be a real pessimist to think things will get worse than they already are," said Vitner, adding that the consumers’ assessment of the economy might be "overly bleak."

Given the amount of stimulus the government has pumped into the economy, Vitner said he is "disappointed that this is all we’re getting in consumer sentiment for economic recovery."

For a healthier reading, Vitner said consumers need to believe jobs will be created and incomes will rise so they will increase spending.

The data followed a government report that said GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity, rose at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of this year, less than the 3.5% it originally reported. 

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If AOL’s announcement on Thursday of another 2,500 job cuts is anything to go by, the painful layoffs that have ravaged the media industry over the past year are nowhere near over.

Even though U.S. media conglomerates have largely reported stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and their CEOs are touting a long-awaited uptick in advertising spending, analysts and recruiters warn that more cost cuts lie ahead.

Much of the earnings upside came from lower costs instead of revenue growth, meaning future improvement could be more challenging as these companies face comparisons against year-ago periods when restructurings were already in place.

“I think many of these major companies have cut to the point that it is starting to affect their operations,” said Hal Vogel, head of trading and consulting firm Vogel Capital Management.

He did not believe there was an immediate need for a large round of cuts but said, “Out of the woods we are not.”

AOL on Thursday said it would cut one-third of its workforce to reduce annual costs by $300 million, as part of the Internet media company’s planned spin-off from Time Warner Inc in December.

The cuts come after an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 people have lost jobs at major media companies like General Electric Co’s NBC Universal, Viacom Inc, Walt Disney Co, Sony Corp and others since 2008.

“There’s no studio that hasn’t cut significantly. It’s understood that most of those jobs aren’t coming back,” said Standard and Poor’s analyst Tuna Amobi.

Some recruiters, job tracking experts and economists cite hiring upticks in certain areas like cable networks and the digital arms of studios check cash advance.

But even then, challenging consumer spending trends, declining DVD sales and unpredictable box office receipts will likely pressure media profits and payrolls in 2010 and beyond.

“I think you’re going to see a little bit of an upturn in hiring as advertising makes a bit of a rebound, but this is an industry in the midst of major change and many people are looking for a more steady line of work,” said Jack Kyser, an economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.

CALIFORNIA UNEMPLOYMENT TO CLIMB

Film production and its attendant industries generate $38 billion for California’s economy and employ nearly 250,000 people. Analysts expect the state’s jobless rate to climb well into next year, even as broader U.S. unemployment is expected to ease from its peak of 10 percent in early 2010.

Job requirements for entertainment professionals are changing as well. New employees will need to not only demonstrate a knowledge of the media industry but also understand fast-changing technologies.

“The last several years have seen belt-tightening across the sector. Business models are still in flux,” said Chris Marangi, analyst with Gabelli & Co. “It’s a balancing act. I think it varies by segment and by company, but some areas in media will grow (by headcount) and some will slim down.” 

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U.K. house prices will rise in the next year, according to a majority of consumers in a survey last month by Rightmove Plc.

Fifty-four percent of respondents expect average house prices to be higher in 12 months, the U.K.’s biggest property Web site said in an e-mailed statement today in London. In the first quarter, more than 68 percent of consumers polled forecast lower prices in a year’s time.

House prices are rebounding from a rout that shaved about 20 percent off average values as demand for new property outstrips supply. Bank of England policy makers said this month that the outlook for the housing market’s recovery depends on the availability of mortgage finance.

“Those surveyed may feel that prices will increase, but that does not necessarily mean that they are willing or able to purchase themselves, especially given the tight lending criteria required to access the best rates,” Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said in the statement loans until payday.

The Bank of England said last week the outlook for the housing market “will depend, in part, on the supply of mortgage credit.” While U.K. mortgage approvals climbed to their highest level for 18 months in September, they’re still only half what they were when the credit crisis started in September 2007.

Prices rose for a third month in October after they had dropped as much as a fifth from 2007, Hometrack Ltd. said earlier this month.

Rightmove said more than 68 percent of respondents described now as a good time to buy while 5 percent said it was a good time to sell. The poll of 34,056 people was conducted from Oct. 5 to Oct. 19.

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China’s ties with Africa have been a magnet for critics worried about corruption and human rights on a continent struggling with both, but its investments are bringing more growth than risk for countries starved of trade.

Two-way trade flows have ballooned tenfold since 2000, to $107 billion last year, as China builds infrastructure, sells cheap goods and buys much-needed energy and mineral resources.

These deals have drawn criticism from activists and politicians, often Western, who say China is stripping Africa of raw materials while shoring up corrupt and oppressive regimes.

But African and Chinese businessmen and academics say Beijing is filling a yawning need for key infrastructure, and Chinese firms are also shaking up moribund markets where Western companies were doing little to develop local economies.

“We always talk about trade being more important than aid,” said Adrian Davis, the China head of Britain’s Department for International Development (DFID), which works with Beijing to support development in Africa.

“This is money going into Africa … We are investing in health and education, but Africa also needs physical infrastructure which we in the West haven’t been doing.”

China’s critics also say they are concerned about what it is funding, and how, as roads, stadia and government buildings built with Chinese cash spring up around the continent — some of them aid, some of them trade, but many something in between.

Beijing entwines business and assistance more closely than Western governments, using infrastructure to pay for resources and often disbursing donated funds through the Commerce Ministry quick payday loan.

This makes it hard to put a figure on handouts, and the only official number for Africa covers all spending from 1949 to 2006.

“We put everything into a very big basket called economic cooperation; investment, humanitarian assistance, contracts. So it is difficult to figure out what belongs purely to aid,” said He Wenping, an Africa expert at an official Beijing think-tank.

CUTTING OUT CASH

But Beijing is aware of the risk to its reputation and market access if projects are derailed by sleaze and its bankers have used their trade-aid model to curb dangers, experts say.

Bypassing host governments and paying Chinese firms directly to build a road or hospital, which is handed over when completed, cuts opportunities for the most predatory graft that often left other aid projects unfinished.

“The Chinese say: ‘We will take your gold and put in so many schools, we will take your copper and put in a railway line’,” said Kwaku Atuahene-Gima, a Ghanian citizen who is Professor at the China Europe International Business School.

“If that happens, that is a more effective way of developing the system than giving loans and aid money that go into the pockets of politicians and other people who squander it.” 

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The Wall Street Journal will close its Boston bureau to save money, and shift coverage of the mutual fund industry to its money and investing reporting team, the newspaper’s editor said on Thursday.

“The economic background is painfully obvious to us all,” Journal Managing Editor Robert Thomson told the paper’s employees in a memo. “That there has been truly great reporting… out of Boston over many, many years is not in doubt. But we remain in the midst of a profound downturn in advertising revenue and thus must think the unthinkable.”

News Corp, which owns the Journal, will keep sister news organizations Dow Jones Newswires and MarketWatch in Boston, the memo said. An investigative reporting operation for the Journal will remain too, Thomson said.

Nine bureau reporters at the Journal would have to apply for other jobs, the memo said.

A Journal spokesman declined to say how much money the closure will save.

There are no plans to close other U.S. or international bureaus, Thomson wrote. The Journal has 16 U.S. bureaus and 23 outside the United States.

Boston is a financial services hub, home to some of the world’s largest mutual fund firms, closely held Fidelity Investments and Sun Life Financial’s MFS Investment Management

The closing comes in the same month the Journal reported that it was one of the few U low fee payday advance.S. newspapers to report a circulation gain — of 0.6 percent — for the six-month period ending in September, compared with last year.

Additionally, the Journal said on Tuesday that it will stop selling its U.S. edition in London, and will offer a redesigned version of its European edition later this year.

Many U.S. newspapers are shedding jobs as advertising revenue falls and circulation declines as more people get their news online for free instead of paying for it in print.

The New York Times Co said earlier this month that it will cut 100 jobs through buyouts, and possibly layoffs, from its namesake newspaper’s editorial operations.

The Journal charges for access to its online edition, and News Corp Chief Executive Rupert Murdoch has redoubled his international newspaper empire’s efforts to charge for news online. The Journal recently began charging for many of its articles for people who read them on mobile devices.

(Reporting by Robert MacMillan. Additional reporting by Jim Finkle; Editing by Tim Dobbyn)

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The pace of hedge fund launches is taking off after a year-long slumber, but the incoming class of start-ups is finding it tougher to beat out established giants and lure money from investors still scarred by last year’s turmoil.

As recently as four or five years ago, star traders could hang a shingle and instantly attract $1 billion from crowds of investors. But last fall’s market meltdown left investors strapped for cash and wary of the hedge fund model; launches slowed to a crawl.

Now, as markets revive and traders see an opportunity to be their own boss, Wall Street’s largest prime brokers expect a spate of start-ups in the next year — just a lot smaller.

“It’s a promising environment for new hedge funds,” said Alex Ehrlich, the former UBS prime brokerage chief who took over as global head of Morgan Stanley’s prime services business last month. “Money is coming in from seasoned investors, many of whom are preparing to redeploy capital.”

A few weeks ago, Morgan Stanley hosted its largest ever capital introduction conference for fund managers and investors. It’s a positive signal even if the meetings took place in suburban Rye, New York, and not Morgan Stanley’s traditional venue in Florida’s Palm Beach.

Still, times have changed. Even the most talented traders and managers will have to accept that $100 million is the new $1 billion when it comes to fund-raising.

“The number of start-up proposals that come by our desk each week is consistent with what we saw in earlier times, but the amount of capital they’re starting with is much smaller,” Goldman Sachs Group global co-head of global securities services John Willian said. “Very few funds will have over $1 billion at their launch.”

NEW CROP

Fund managers are in a more “normalized” environment, UBS AG U.S. prime brokerage chief John Laub said. They have to be satisfied with $50 million, even if the same managers might have attracted nine figures in boom times.

One key reason is that young guns are competing for investment dollars with established fund managers with long track records.

“Some of the biggest funds were closed to investors for a long time, but after last year’s downturn they reopened and people took advantage,” Laub said.

So even as hundreds of managers scour the Street for money, almost no one is hitting their original fund-raising targets, said Louis Lebedin, co-head of JPMorgan Chase & Co’s prime brokerage.

“On average, we’re seeing clients raise roughly half of what they achieved historically,” he said.

According to Hedge Fund Research, start-up activity peaked at 2,073 new funds in 2005 — an average of one every four hours. That sank to 659 last year as investors pulled out record amounts of cash and 1,471 funds were liquidated.

As recently as the first half of 2009, liquidations outnumbered launches 2-to-1. Now Wall Street’s top prime brokerage executives tell Reuters they are gearing up to win their share of a new wave of funds. 

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