My finance view

It’s official: Californians will decide whether legal marijuana should be used to plug the state’s $20 billion budget gap.

California residents are expected to vote this year on whether legalization should be approved to raise nearly $1.4 billion in state revenue. That’s based on an estimate from the State Board of Equalization, a tax administration agency.

"It would be another source of revenue for the state," said Anita Gore, spokeswoman for the board. The board has not issued an opinion on legalization as a means of easing the state’s budget crisis, she added.

California Secretary Debra Brown confirmed on Wednesday that enough signatures had been collected to put AB 390, a marijuana legalization bill, on the ballot for Nov. 2. A press release from the secretary said that legalization proponents submitted 694,248 petition signatures for the bill, easily surpassing the required 433,791.

"The momentum for reform has grown exponentially since we introduced the bill last year," said Quitin Mecke, spokesman for Assemblyman Tom Ammiano, D-San Francisco, the lead sponsor of the bill. "We’re excited about the prospect to reform drug laws again."

Mecke noted that California was the first state to pass legislation allowing medicinal marijuana, 14 years ago.

Unlike prior legislation that has passed in California and other states, this form of legalization is not restricted to medicinal use of marijuana pay day loan lenders. The bill proposes that marijuana be regulated and taxed in a similar way to alcohol.

According to the bill, people would have to be 21 years or older "to possess, cultivate, or transport marijuana for personal use." Californians would not be permitted to use the drug in public or within the presence of minors, and would not be allowed to possess it on school grounds.

Most importantly, as far as the budget gap is concerned, the bill stipulates that the drug would be subject to a sales tax. An additional retail fee of $50 would be imposed on every ounce that’s sold.

The State Board of Equalization estimates that the state could raise $1.382 billion in annual tax revenues from legal marijuana. The figure is based on estimated revenue of $990 million from the retail fees and $392 million from sales taxes.

"With the state in the midst of an historic economic crisis, the move towards regulating and taxing marijuana is simply common sense," Ammiano said in a press release when he first proposed the bill last year.

Also, Mecke said that legalization could prompt the state to "reallocate" more than $300 million in law enforcement spending away from non-violent drug activity to address violent crimes.  

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Although construction firms reported a reduction in work backlog nationwide, the southern U.S. showed the most decline, according to the latest report from Associated Builders and Contractors Inc., a national association which represents 25,000 firms in the construction industry.

ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator sharply declined by 9 percent between November 2009 and January 2010.

This index, a forward-looking indicator which measures the amount of construction work under contract to be completed in the future, has slipped 16.3 percent during the last year.

It currently stands at 5.5 months, the lowest point reported in the 15 months ABC has gathered this data.

The sharpest regional decline occurred in the South, falling from 8.12 months in January 2009 to 6.03 months in January 2010.

“The fact that the CBI is now at its lowest point since ABC began measuring the statistic in November 2008 indicates that the nation’s nonresidential construction industry remains mired in its own recession,” said Anirban Basu, ABC chief economist cash advance no fax.

Nonresidential construction tends to lag the overall economy by 12 to 24 months.

“With the broader economy having been in a slow recovery for roughly three quarters, and with the stimulus package still having an impact, the hope had been that some signs of backlog stability would be apparent by now,” Basu said. “However, all indications continue to point toward an ongoing decline in the commercial and industrial construction industry.”

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St. Louis University will tap into the large pool of laid-off Pfizer scientists to launch a new research center focused on discovering drugs to treat medical problems in the developing world.

SLU has committed $5 million over the next two years to fund the Center for World Health & Medicine, which will launch in July, Raymond Tait, SLU’s vice president for research, said Wednesday. The school initially plans to hire a dozen soon-to-be former Pfizer researchers.

In November, Pfizer announced it would lay off 600 of its 1,000 employees in St. Louis, part of a 15 percent reduction of the drugmaker’s global work force. The reductions followed Pfizer’s $68 billion acquisition of the drugmaker Wyeth. Pfizer’s main research campus in the area is located in Chesterfield.

SLU began discussions in early December to figure out ways to keep some of those scientists in St. Louis. In a time of strained university resources, this reflects SLU’s commitment to the region, Tait said.

"St. Louis U. worked with uncharacteristic speed," he said. "The initial reaction was a form of horror to think about the impact of (the layoffs) on the St. Louis region. After we had a chance to digest it, we then thought, ‘Gee, this also provides us with an important opportunity that could be transformative for research at St. Louis U.’"

This is a somewhat unusual venture, in that universities have not typically delved into the realm of drug discovery, Tait acknowledged.

"We’re not going to compete with Pfizer and Wyeth," he said. "We’re not going after blockbuster drugs."

Rather, the appealing part of this idea was that the school could follow its Jesuit mission by helping underserved populations, he said.

Steve Johnson, senior vice president of the St. Louis Regional Chamber and Growth Association, said SLU’s move is a small but important step in the right direction if St. Louis hopes to plug the leakage of high-skilled workers to other areas.

There are between 1,700 and 2,000 laid-off scientists and skilled technical workers in the region right now, Johnson said. Keeping them, and their skills, in St. Louis is becoming an increasingly high priority, he said.

"That represents a tremendous amount of talent," Johnson said payday advance. "You don’t want to dehumanize people, but those are marketable assets for the region."

They are the kind of assets that can help lure other big medical and technology firms here, or that can seed startups, or that, as in this case, can help launch research groups at local universities.

"We applaud (SLU’s effort)," Johnson said. "And we’ll be digging into this whole issue and look at what other regions are doing."

SLU still has to hash out many of the details about the new center — such as whom exactly it will hire, where it will be housed, and what areas it will focus on.

"This is still a work in progress," Tait said. "Give us another couple of months where we can flesh out who will be working with us."

While many of the scientists have already vacated their laboratories, they are still under contract with Pfizer, Tait said. So SLU has not yet officially hired anyone, but it has spoken with several people who are very interested in the new center, he said.

Targeting childhood diarrhea is one area that some scientists have expressed a special interest in, he added.

Tait said he hopes the center will be sustained down the line in part through research grants, subcontracting work, and perhaps foundation support.

"We’ll see if we cannot make this viable," he said. "Over time, we suspect we will get some intellectual property, but intellectual property is not the lifeblood."

SLU has already started writing up an application for a federal stimulus-funded research grant at the new center, he said.

Down the line, Tait said, SLU could work with pharmaceutical companies — including, but not limited to, Pfizer.

"I don’t see us undertaking clinical trials," he said. "What I can see us doing is identifying some promising treatment approaches, working to where we have some evidence or sense that they are safe. But in order to bring them to market, we will have to partner."

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Mexico’s benchmark local bonds are poised for the biggest annual rally in four years after underperforming regional debt in 2009 as the economy recovers and the peso gains, Stone Harbor Investment Partners said.

The yield on Mexico’s 10 percent peso bond due in December 2024 may plunge about 40 basis points, or 0.40 percentage point, in 2010, to 7.80 percent, said Pablo Cisilino, who manages $11.5 billion in emerging-market assets at Stone Harbor in New York. That would be the biggest one-year drop since 2006.

Mexican domestic debt returned 7.7 percent last year, less than the 10 percent return posted by Latin American local bonds on average, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s ELMI+ index. The region’s second-largest economy will grow 2.95 percent in 2010 after contracting 7 percent last year, the most since 1932, the median forecast of 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey shows.

“People were too pessimistic on the growth outlook for Mexico and very pessimistic about the peso,” Cisilino said. “Things are changing. They’re starting to come around.”

Daily volume in Mexican bonds traded in the secondary interbank market doubled to an average of 9.4 billion pesos in January’s first 14 days from the same period a year earlier, Citigroup Inc. said in a Jan. 19 report.

The peso is up 1.6 percent this year, the second-best performance against the dollar among 16 major currencies, behind South Korea’s Won, on prospects increased demand from the U.S., Mexico’s biggest export market, will help spur the recovery.

‘Strong Recovery’

The currency rose 0.6 percent to 12.8991 per U.S. dollar at 11:02 a.m. New York time. The yield on the 10 percent peso bond due in December 2024 fell four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 8.18 percent, according to Banco Santander SA.

Miguel Messmacher, the chief economist at Mexico’s Finance Ministry, said in an interview Jan. 22 that there is a “very high” probability the country’s economy will grow more than 3 percent this year.

“Exports are showing a very strong recovery,” Messmacher said. “There are no doubts about the stability of external accounts in Mexico.”

Cisilino predicts the yield on Mexico’s 8.5 percent peso bonds maturing in 2018 may drop 50 basis points this year. The yield on the 2024 bonds slid 16 basis points in the past three months to 8.22 percent on Jan. 22, according to Banco Santander SA. The $135 million Stone Harbor Emerging Market Debt Fund that Cisilino helps manage returned 43 percent last year and is up 0.9 percent in 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Borrowing Costs

Peso bonds may also rise because inflation is unlikely to pick up enough in the next six months for central bank Governor Agustin Carstens to raise borrowing costs, according to Alejandro Hernandez, who oversees 13.5 billion pesos ($1 billion) in fixed-income assets at Grupo Financiero Interacciones SA in Mexico City no fax payday loans.

“There could be a rally in the first half of the year” if the bank keeps its inflation forecast and the peso remains strong, Hernandez said.

Citigroup’s Mexico City-based Banamex unit, Banco Santander SA and Bank of Nova Scotia are among six banks that pushed back their forecast for interest-rate increases after Carstens, 51, said this month a stronger peso will curb inflation.

Mexican inflation has absorbed price increases “well,” Carstens said at a conference in Mexico City on Jan. 8. He said the increases are coming from the government raising taxes and state-controlled prices.

“The direct impact on prices is limited, and will be transitory and fade after a year,” Carstens said.

Rate Forecasts

Banamex revised its call for a rate rise to September from May while Santander, Spain-based Banco Santander pushed back its forecast to October from February. Toronto-based Scotiabank shifted its call to April from February. The median estimate of 21 economists in a Jan. 12 Banamex survey is for borrowing costs to start rising in July, four months later than they predicted last month.

Inflation may quicken more than the central bank forecasts, said Ricardo Aguilar, an economist at Invex Casa de Bolsa SA in Mexico City.

“I think they’ll raise forecasts,” said Aguilar, who predicts an inflation rate of 5.44 percent this year and says the bank may increase forecasts in July. “There are other goods and services that could suffer a greater impact than what the market and the bank predict.”

The central bank will probably keep its inflation forecasts unchanged in its quarterly report on Jan. 27, said Luis Flores, an economist at Ixe Grupo Financiero SA in Mexico City. Policy makers said last month the annual inflation rate may climb as high as 4.75 percent in the first three months of 2010, rising to 5 percent in the April-to-July period and 5.25 percent in the second half.

Inflation

The annual inflation rate was 4.17 percent in the first half of January.

“The idea is gaining ground little by little that the bank won’t move rates,” Flores said. “We’ll see more interest in the debt market.”

Mexico’s benchmark Bolsa stock index fell 4.4 percent to 30,830.91 last week. Cemex SAB, the largest cement maker in the Americas, declined 8.1 percent to 13.73 pesos last week. Gruma SAB, Mexico’s largest maker of corn flour for tortillas, retreated 4 percent to 27.4 pesos from 28.55.

The Mexican currency dropped 2.1 percent to 12.9744 pesos per dollar last week.

Yields on Mexico’s benchmark peso bond due 2024 rose seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 8.22 percent, according to Banco Santander SA.

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DETROIT–The race to build alternative energy vehicles moved up a notch Monday when Toyota Motor Corp. revealed a hybrid compact for the first time that could move into production within three to five years.

In unveiling a lime green FT-CH "dedicated hybrid," at the less splashy than usual North American International Auto Show, Toyota revealed it also plans to boost its gas-electric fleet with eight new models during the next few years – and none of them will be next-generation versions of current vehicles. The company now has seven hybrids in showrooms.

Toyota, which surpassed General Motors as the auto industry’s world leader last year, said it plans to hit one million in annual worldwide hybrid sales early this decade. Most of those sales will come in North America, where consumers, because of climbing gas prices and climate-change concerns, are starting to shift to smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles that are less damaging to the environment.

Toyota officials said the Japanese automaker’s assault on the alternative energy car market will include the development of a family of vehicles around the Prius, the company’s flagship hybrid model. The Prius, the world’s first hybrid, reached sales of more than two million during the past decade.

Ray Tanguay, a managing officer for parent Toyota and chief executive officer of the company’s Canadian manufacturing operations, said the FT-CH is under consideration for production in Japan in the three- to five-year range.

"It’s a fair expectation," he said.

Tanguay said Toyota is targeting young buyers, or what some company officials call the "8-bit generation," after the microprocessor technology that dominated the budding home video game industry during the 1980s. Pricing would be below the Prius, which now has a base manufacturer’s suggested retail price of about $27,000.

Toyota said the vehicle is lighter and more fuel efficient than the Prius. It is 22 inches shorter than the mid-size Prius but can still seat five people comfortably, the company noted in promotional material.

Prius sales improved marginally in Canada last year to 4,610 despite a sharp decline in the overall market.

Toyota, which struggled like other major automakers because of the world recession last year, wants to offer a variety of hybrid choices, including plug-in models by 2012 and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in 2015.

"We must re-imagine the automobile, a century after its invention, with powertrains that greatly reduce or even eliminate the use of conventional petroleum fuels," said Toyota Canada president Yoichi Tomihara. "The electrification of the automobile is just one of many alternatives and the most successful example of this to date has been the gas-electric hybrid."

However, Toyota and other automakers have acknowledged they face major a challenge to reduce the cost of hybrids and full electric vehicles to make them more affordable and practical to consumers because of battery costs, travel range and charging infrastructure.

Some other automakers promoted their hybrid and electric capabilities at the show. Fiat, Chrysler’s new partner, showed an electric Fiat 500 subcompact, for example, but the company did not disclose any timing for production.

The 22nd annual show’s media preview did not feature the splashy presentations that dominated the event in the past. Instead, companies showed smaller vehicles with an emphasis on fuel economy.

More politicians toured the event since the U.S. and Canadian governments have become shareholders in GM and Chrysler, which got taxpayer loans to stay alive last year.

"It’s not an auto show any more," said veteran industry watcher Dennis DesRosiers. "It’s a political spin show … the industry has to show governments they’re listening."

He said in the U.S., several automakers are working on costly technology to improve fuel economy without downsizing autos because Americans won’t buy enough smaller vehicles.

"The question is will there be enough volume because of the higher prices," he said. "It may take a decade before those prices come down enough."

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Return policies aren’t what they used to be in the days of Timothy Eaton’s "goods satisfactory or money refunded."

Leon’s Furniture Ltd. has a policy that all sales are final on appliances and electronics products, as Bryan Richards found when he brought back his mother’s Toshiba TV within two weeks.

"The channels would not change, the screen would go blank and the controls would freeze," he said.

While he was told the return policy was printed on the back of the invoice, he said it wasn’t displayed prominently in the store or explained to him before the purchase.

Leon’s spokesman Bruce Bergeron said the store succeeded in getting a replacement through Toshiba.

"Thanks for your intervention," Richards said.

"We have learned a valuable lesson, which I will pass along to friends and relatives."

Peter Coutts was helping his parents with a Sealy mattress bought at Leon’s last year.

"I successfully got Sealy to replace one mattress because the defect met their criteria (a measured amount of sagging)," he said.

A few months later, the replacement was also sagging. His parents couldn’t get a good night’s sleep.

Bergeron said Sealy had agreed to "look after the consumer and offer a reselection," even though the second mattress did not meet the terms for replacement.

Coutts said his parents would follow through on the exchange of the old mattress, even though they had lost confidence in Sealy products.

"I would rate Leon’s a five out of 10 in after-sale service," he said. "They don’t provide direct numbers for service representatives (you must go through the main switchboard), nor do they provide email addresses."

Sandeep Nigam wrote to me when he was denied a refund of a $20 prepaid Rogers card that he purchased at a No Frills grocery store quick guaranteed personal loans.

The cashier had scanned the card – thereby activating it – after it had fallen onto the conveyor belt in error.

He did not want a Rogers card and did not notice the charge on his grocery bill until after he got home.

Although he came back within a half hour, No Frills said he had to deal with Rogers.

Meanwhile, Rogers said the prepaid cards were nonrefundable and he had to take it up with the store manager.

Things were resolved quickly when I forwarded his email to Loblaw Cos. Ltd., which owns No Frills.

"We have offered the customer a $20 gift card and he is returning the Rogers card," said spokeswoman Karen Gumbs.

Anne Hamilton asked for help with Air Miles.

Her father had booked a free flight to Phoenix this Christmas, but did not realize that he had a conflict with his curling team’s final games.

When he called to reschedule, he was told he’d have to pay a $209.50 change fee to the airline and declined to do so.

"Given that he has a personal commitment that cannot be moved to another date, Air Miles will absorb all the change fees charged by the airline so he is able to attend his event," said Shawna Rossi, a spokeswoman for the loyalty program.

Before you buy, always ask: Can I return this? Is there a deadline? Will I get a full or partial refund? This can help avoid surprises later.

Write to onyourside@thestar.ca or check the On Your Side blog at www.ellenroseman.com

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The Obama administration threatened on Monday to punish mortgage lenders with fines unless they speed up efforts to give hard-pressed homeowners a permanent break on monthly payments.

With foreclosures still rising and roughly 375,000 borrowers seen as eligible for permanent loan modifications by year-end, the U.S. Treasury and Housing and Urban Development departments want to make sure that banks come through on the promise of lower payments.

“Banks should be moving more rapidly and more efficiently to decisions once documents are in and we will have more detailed metrics on that in coming months,” Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr said during a conference call.

Some 650,000 borrowers have completed trial modifications under the Home Affordable Modification Program that was initiated by the Obama administration earlier this year.

The $75 billion taxpayer-financed program is aimed at slowing the pace of foreclosures. But there are frequent complaints that loan servicers are slow and lose or misplace paperwork that people have sent in.

Rick Mullen, a Valencia, California, homeowner told Reuters he had delivered documents four times to three different addresses while seeking a modification from Chase Home Mortgage.

His monthly payment was reduced more than $1,000 on a trial basis several months ago but the document requests continue.

“The bottom line is, I figure if I keep making my payments they are not going to throw me out of my house,” he said.

ANYTHING HELPS

Industry observers offered mixed praise for the Treasury’s efforts, commenting that the administration seemed overwhelmed by the rising volume of troubled loans but at least it was trying to get the system performing better.

“It’s good they are doing this,” said Thomas Lawler, founder of Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting in Leesburg, Virginia. “It’s hard to tell if the HAMP is delaying a horrible problem or is working.”

A slumping housing sector was at the center of the financial crisis that struck in 2007, dragging the U.S. economy into a deep recession that has pushed jobless rates to their highest in nearly 30 years and piled pressure on homeowners.

The Treasury and HUD want lenders to step up now to make sure trial modifications are converted into permanent cuts in monthly payments. The federal agencies are setting performance standards to make sure banks do so or explain why not.

Mortgage servicers will have to submit plans saying how they would decide whether a loan will be permanently modified. If a bank fails to meet guidelines set in an agreement with the Treasury, it would face “consequences which could include monetary penalties and sanctions,” the Treasury said.

But Barr refused to offer any details on how large fines might be or what potential sanctions banks might face. 

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Malaria. Tuberculosis. Alzheimer’s disease. AIDS. Flu. Genital herpes. Urinary tract infections. Grass allergies. Traveler’s diarrhea. You name it, the pharmaceutical industry is working on a vaccine to prevent it.

Many could be on the market in five years or less.

Contrast that with five years ago, when so many companies had abandoned the business that half the U.S. supply of flu shots was lost because of factory contamination at one of the two manufacturers left.

Vaccines are no longer a sleepy, low-profit niche. Today, they’re starting to give ailing pharmaceutical makers a shot in the arm.

The lure of big profit, advances in technology and growing government support has been drawing in new companies, from nascent biotechs to Johnson & Johnson. That means recent remarkable strides in overcoming dreaded diseases and annoying afflictions likely will continue.

"Even if a small portion of everything that’s going on now is successful in the next 10 years, you put that together with the last 10 years (and) it’s going to be characterized as a golden era," says Emilio Emini, Pfizer Inc.’s head of vaccine research. Pfizer has a facility in Chesterfield.

Vaccines now are viewed as a crucial path to growth, as drugmakers look for ways to bolster slowing prescription medicine sales amid intensifying generic competition and government pressure to cut down prices.

Unlike medicines that treat diseases, vaccines help prevent infections by revving up the body’s natural immune defenses against invaders. They are made from viruses, bacteria or parts of them that have been killed or weakened so they can’t cause an infection.

Investment in partnerships and other deals to develop and manufacture vaccines has been on a tear — and accelerating since the swine flu pandemic began. Billions in government grants are bringing better, faster ways to develop and manufacture vaccines. Rising worldwide emphasis on preventive care, plus the advent of the first multibillion-dollar vaccines, have further boosted appeal.

While prescription drug sales are forecast to rise by a third in five years, vaccine sales should double, from $19 billion last year to $39 billion in 2013, according to market research firm Kalorama Information. That’s five times the $8 billion in 2004.

"What was essentially 25 years ago a rounding error now has become real money," says Robin Robinson, director of the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research Development Authority.

That jump is due to a couple of new blockbuster vaccines and rising use of existing ones. The government’s list of recommended vaccines for children has more than doubled since 1985 to 17. It now also calls for a half-dozen vaccines for everyone over 18, and up to four more for adults.

The last decade brought vaccines against pneumococcal disease and rotavirus — two of the world’s top killers — meningitis, cervical cancer and more.

Better technology to create and mass produce vaccines is bringing progress in preventing tropical dengue fever and new threats like superbugs MRSA and C. difficile, even ending addiction to cocaine and nicotine. Success on some vaccines in development, particularly for Alzheimer’s and AIDS, likely would bring billions a year in sales.

Just this fall and early next year, swine flu vaccines are expected to bring their makers at least a couple billion extra dollars.

But a horde of biotech companies, many using multimillion-dollar government grants, already are testing state-of-the-art technology for the next pandemic. Scientists — including some at J&J’s new vaccine partner, Holland’s Crucell — even are working to develop the holy grail: a universal flu vaccine targeting a part of the virus that doesn’t change year to year.

And some future vaccines will come in patches, pills and nasal sprays, rather than painful shots.

Britain’s GlaxoSmithKline is gunning to become the world’s top vaccine manufacturer by revenue, unseating Merck. Glaxo, which sold only one vaccine in the U.S. 13 years ago, now sells 12 here — and 30 worldwide. It has 20 more in testing, including ones for meningitis and malaria.

J&J, which previously avoided vaccines, plans to build a full vaccine portfolio, starting with universal flu and Alzheimer’s vaccines, says research head Dr. Paul Stoffels.

Even Pfizer Inc.’s $68 billion acquisition of Wyeth in October was partly about getting its vaccine expertise. Wyeth makes the most successful vaccine ever, Prevnar, which protects children from ear infections, pneumonia and blood infections. Prevnar brought in $2.7 billion in 2008 sales.

Experts call Prevnar the "game changer." It was the first vaccine to exceed $1 billion in annual sales, followed by Merck’s cervical cancer shot Gardasil, with $2.3 billion in 2008 sales.

"Vaccines are now perhaps seen to be more attractive than drugs," says Dr. Stanley Plotkin, a former University of Pennsylvania professor and industry researcher who helped develop the German measles and rotavirus vaccines.

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If AOL’s announcement on Thursday of another 2,500 job cuts is anything to go by, the painful layoffs that have ravaged the media industry over the past year are nowhere near over.

Even though U.S. media conglomerates have largely reported stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and their CEOs are touting a long-awaited uptick in advertising spending, analysts and recruiters warn that more cost cuts lie ahead.

Much of the earnings upside came from lower costs instead of revenue growth, meaning future improvement could be more challenging as these companies face comparisons against year-ago periods when restructurings were already in place.

“I think many of these major companies have cut to the point that it is starting to affect their operations,” said Hal Vogel, head of trading and consulting firm Vogel Capital Management.

He did not believe there was an immediate need for a large round of cuts but said, “Out of the woods we are not.”

AOL on Thursday said it would cut one-third of its workforce to reduce annual costs by $300 million, as part of the Internet media company’s planned spin-off from Time Warner Inc in December.

The cuts come after an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 people have lost jobs at major media companies like General Electric Co’s NBC Universal, Viacom Inc, Walt Disney Co, Sony Corp and others since 2008.

“There’s no studio that hasn’t cut significantly. It’s understood that most of those jobs aren’t coming back,” said Standard and Poor’s analyst Tuna Amobi.

Some recruiters, job tracking experts and economists cite hiring upticks in certain areas like cable networks and the digital arms of studios check cash advance.

But even then, challenging consumer spending trends, declining DVD sales and unpredictable box office receipts will likely pressure media profits and payrolls in 2010 and beyond.

“I think you’re going to see a little bit of an upturn in hiring as advertising makes a bit of a rebound, but this is an industry in the midst of major change and many people are looking for a more steady line of work,” said Jack Kyser, an economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.

CALIFORNIA UNEMPLOYMENT TO CLIMB

Film production and its attendant industries generate $38 billion for California’s economy and employ nearly 250,000 people. Analysts expect the state’s jobless rate to climb well into next year, even as broader U.S. unemployment is expected to ease from its peak of 10 percent in early 2010.

Job requirements for entertainment professionals are changing as well. New employees will need to not only demonstrate a knowledge of the media industry but also understand fast-changing technologies.

“The last several years have seen belt-tightening across the sector. Business models are still in flux,” said Chris Marangi, analyst with Gabelli & Co. “It’s a balancing act. I think it varies by segment and by company, but some areas in media will grow (by headcount) and some will slim down.” 

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China’s ties with Africa have been a magnet for critics worried about corruption and human rights on a continent struggling with both, but its investments are bringing more growth than risk for countries starved of trade.

Two-way trade flows have ballooned tenfold since 2000, to $107 billion last year, as China builds infrastructure, sells cheap goods and buys much-needed energy and mineral resources.

These deals have drawn criticism from activists and politicians, often Western, who say China is stripping Africa of raw materials while shoring up corrupt and oppressive regimes.

But African and Chinese businessmen and academics say Beijing is filling a yawning need for key infrastructure, and Chinese firms are also shaking up moribund markets where Western companies were doing little to develop local economies.

“We always talk about trade being more important than aid,” said Adrian Davis, the China head of Britain’s Department for International Development (DFID), which works with Beijing to support development in Africa.

“This is money going into Africa … We are investing in health and education, but Africa also needs physical infrastructure which we in the West haven’t been doing.”

China’s critics also say they are concerned about what it is funding, and how, as roads, stadia and government buildings built with Chinese cash spring up around the continent — some of them aid, some of them trade, but many something in between.

Beijing entwines business and assistance more closely than Western governments, using infrastructure to pay for resources and often disbursing donated funds through the Commerce Ministry quick payday loan.

This makes it hard to put a figure on handouts, and the only official number for Africa covers all spending from 1949 to 2006.

“We put everything into a very big basket called economic cooperation; investment, humanitarian assistance, contracts. So it is difficult to figure out what belongs purely to aid,” said He Wenping, an Africa expert at an official Beijing think-tank.

CUTTING OUT CASH

But Beijing is aware of the risk to its reputation and market access if projects are derailed by sleaze and its bankers have used their trade-aid model to curb dangers, experts say.

Bypassing host governments and paying Chinese firms directly to build a road or hospital, which is handed over when completed, cuts opportunities for the most predatory graft that often left other aid projects unfinished.

“The Chinese say: ‘We will take your gold and put in so many schools, we will take your copper and put in a railway line’,” said Kwaku Atuahene-Gima, a Ghanian citizen who is Professor at the China Europe International Business School.

“If that happens, that is a more effective way of developing the system than giving loans and aid money that go into the pockets of politicians and other people who squander it.” 

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