My finance view

Well, it’s over. Mitt Romney has amassed a nearly-insurmountable delegate lead, and is on track to become his party’s nominee for president.

The road to victory hasn’t been easy for the former Massachusetts governor. The primary campaign stretched on for months, and at least 10 different candidates topped the national polls at some point.

So how much did victory cost?

Romney spent a total of $76.6 million, far more than any other campaign. That total is, for example, more than the combined spending of Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.

Now, money isn’t everything in politics — but it sure doesn’t hurt. And in this field, Romney dominated.

"The Romney team was putting a lot of money out there," one Santorum adviser told CNN when the former Pennsylvania senator called it quits earlier this month. "The budget was a factor."

More money, more votes: The billion dollar campaign

At the end of March, the Romney camp had captured 607 delegates and 4.1 million votes. That means the candidate, who has cultivated a reputation as a penny-pincher, spent $18.50 per vote, and $126,000 per delegate.

The money was used to cover various expenses like hotels, food, equipment, accounting services, rental cars, air travel, event consultants and online advertisers.

For instance, in March, the campaign spent $871 on Poland Spring water, $1,966 on office supplies from Apple (, Fortune 500), more than $50 at Applebee’s, $48 at Arby’s, $9.57 at Panda Express, $11,000 in payments to the Waldorf Astoria hotel and $70,165 at law and lobbying firm Patton Boggs.

But at least two of Romney’s contenders had a better votes-to-expenditure ratio.

America’s Choice 2012

Gingrich, for example, spent $21 million through the end of March, collecting 141 delegates and 2.2 million votes. That works out to just under $10 per vote and around $150,000 per delegate.

Santorum spent $18.7 million on 264 delegates and 2.9 million votes for a per-vote expenditure just north of $6.50 and a cost-per-delegate of about $71,000.

Paul, meanwhile, got the worst return on his money of the final contenders. The Texas congressman spent nearly $35 million, but received only around 1.1 million votes and 72 delegates. The math works out to $32.40 per vote and roughly $485,500 per delegate.

And that’s just the official campaign spending. This cycle, the influence of super PACs should not be ignored. While technically prohibited from coordinating with campaigns, the new spending vehicles acted as a supplement, and in some cases, became campaign linchpins.

When super PAC money is factored in, overall spending on Romney’s behalf jumps to $122 million, bringing his cost-per-vote to just under $30. By this measure, each delegate cost more than $200,000.

Gingrich also saw a significant jump when super PAC money is included. Adding in the $18 million spent by the Winning our Future super PAC, the former House speaker’s cost-per-vote jumps to over $17.75, while spending per delegate tops $275,000.

The Santorum super PAC added around $8 million in spending. That pushed him to almost $9.50 per vote and $101,500 per delegate. Less reliant on super PAC spending, Paul’s figures were little changed.

Moving ahead, Romney faces the challenge of ramping up fundraising efforts, while investing a healthy percentage of that money in the kind of ground game that will be able to get out the vote in November.

One candidate has a jump on Romney in that category: President Obama. The Obama re-election campaign has brought in $191 million, and already spent just less than half — or $89 million — of that total. 

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European nations and Russia have proposed rival U.N. resolutions that would expand the number of U.N. cease-fire monitors in Syria from 30 to 300.

The key difference in the texts _ circulated Friday morning to the Security Council and obtained by The Associated Press _ is whether there should be any conditions on the deployment of the larger observer force.

The draft proposed by Russia, Syria’s closest ally, does not include any conditions.

The European draft says the expanded force would be deployed “expeditiously” after Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon notifies the council that Syria has implemented its pledge to withdraw all troops and heavy weapons from cities and towns “to his satisfaction.”

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP’s earlier story is below.

GENEVA (AP) _ The United Nations hopes to have 30 cease-fire monitors in Syria next week and plans are already being made for the deployment of up to 300, a spokesman for international envoy Kofi Annan said Friday, as France called on the international community to prepare for the possible failure of the increasingly fragile peace deal.

Seven observers are on the ground and another two will arrive on Monday, said Annan’s spokesman.

“During the course of next week we hope that those that we are seconding from missions in the area who can move quickly will be there and we will make the numbers up to 30,” Ahmad Fawzi told reporters in Geneva.

The preliminary agreement between Syria and the United Nations on the deployment of U.N. observers says they will have freedom to go anywhere in the country by foot or by car, take pictures, and use technical equipment to monitor compliance with the cease-fire engineered by Annan.

But the issue of using helicopters and aircraft will likely dominate discussions in the coming days, Fawzi told The Associated Press.

The larger contingent of up to 300 also still needs to be approved by the U.N. Security Council.

“As soon as the Security Council adopts a resolution authorizing up to 300 monitors on the ground, we will be ready to deploy very, very rapidly,” Fawzi said.

“We are preparing for the deployment because we feel that it is going to happen sooner or later because it must happen,” he added

In France, Foreign Minister Alain Juppe called on the international community to live up to its responsibilities and warned that if Annan’s peace plan “doesn’t function, we have to envisage other methods.”

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon accused Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday of failing to honor the peace plan that went into effect a week ago personal loan for poor credit.

Juppe said on France’s BFM television that his country would support a U.S.-backed proposal for a U.N. arms embargo and other tough measures against Syria.

The peace plan is “the last chance before civil war. … We don’t have the right to wait,” he said.

Juppe hosted U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and other diplomats in Paris on Thursday to try to work out options for Syria.

Annan’s diplomacy succeeded in getting Russia to back the monitoring mission, but Syria’s ally continues to resist more forceful measures.

“The Russian position is in the process of evolving,” Juppe said without elaborating.

U.N. chief Ban told the Security Council on Thursday that the situation remains “highly precarious,” citing an escalation of violence including “shelling of civilian areas, grave abuses by government forces and attacks by armed groups.”

That view was echoed by Annan’s spokesman.

“The situation on the ground is not good, as we all know,” Fawzi said. “There are casualties every day. There are incidents every day. And we have to do everything we can to stop what’s going on. The killing, the violence in all its forms.”

The observers, who report to Annan daily, will have freedom to install temporary observation posts in cities and towns, to monitor military convoys approaching population centers, to investigate any potential violation, and to access detention centers and medical centers in coordination with the International Committee of the Red Cross and Syrian authorities, the agreement says.

Meanwhile, diplomats meeting Friday in Geneva to discuss the humanitarian situation agreed to a draft plan to provide aid to civilians affected by the fighting.

The plan budgets $180 million to provide food, medicine and other supplies to about 1 million people inside Syria. It comes on top of the aid that is delivered to refugees who have fled abroad.

“The whole infrstructure of the country is under strain,” said John Ging, who heads the coordination and response division of the U.N.’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Ging said the plan, particularly the question of how many aid workers will be allowed into the country, still needs Syria’s approval.

______

Angela Charlton in Paris contributed to this report.

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The Donald, camera shy?

The Star was denied entry at a Toronto press conference featuring real estate mogul and reality TV star Donald Trump Monday to officially open the new Trump International Hotel.

Why? A spokesperson at the event said the event was

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage dropped near its all-time low this week, making home-buying and refinancing a bargain for those who can qualify.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the rate on the 30-year loan fell to 3.88 percent from 3.98 percent. That’s just above the rate of 3.87 percent reached in February, the lowest since long-term mortgages began in the 1950s.

The 15-year mortgage, a popular option for refinancing, plunged to a fresh low of 3.11 percent from 3.21 percent last week. The previous record of 3.13 percent was hit last month.

Mortgage rates are lower because they tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Last week’s disappointing report on March job growth led more investors to sell stocks and buy Treasurys, which are considered safer investments. As demand for Treasurys increases, the yield falls.

Employers added just 120,000 jobs last month _ half the monthly pace from the previous three months. Many economists downplayed the weak March figures, noting that a warmer winter may have led to some earlier hiring in previous months.

The mild winter has helped lift expectations for the housing market after four years of sluggish sales.

January and February made up the best winter for re-sales in five years, when the housing crisis began. And builders in February requested the most permits to construct homes in more than three years.

Cheap mortgage rates are also brightening the outlook. They have been below 4 percent for all but one week since early December faxless pay day loans.

Applications for new mortgages have fallen over the past month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, But there has been a sharp rise in the average loan size, suggesting a bigger appetite for home loans. The average size of mortgage applications has increased by $20,000 since December, to about $235,000 last month.

Home prices continue to fall. Prices tend to lag sales and millions of foreclosures and short sales _ when a lender accepts less than what is owed on a mortgage _ remain on the market. And the housing crisis and recession have also persuaded many Americans to rent instead of buy, which has led to a drop in homeownership.

To calculate the average rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country on just Monday through Wednesday of each week.

The average rates don’t include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount.

The average fees for the 30-year and 15-year fixed loans were unchanged at 0.7.

For the five-year adjustable loan, the average rate fell to 2.85 percent from 2.86 percent, and the average fee fell to 0.7 from 0.8.

The average on the one-year adjustable loan rose to 2.80 percent from 2.78 percent, and the average fee was unchanged at 0.6.

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The U.S. job market took a breather in March after its best hiring stretch since the Great Recession.

Employers added 120,000 jobs last month _ half the December-February pace and well short of the 210,000 economists were expecting. The unemployment rate fell from 8.3 percent in February to 8.2 percent, the lowest since January 2009, but that was largely because many Americans stopped looking for work.

Still, few economists expect hiring to fizzle in spring and summer, as it did the past two years. And they blamed seasonal factors for much of Friday’s disappointing report from the Labor Department.

“We don’t think this is the start of another spring dip in labor market conditions,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist with Capital Economics.

The report was also closely watched in political circles. If employers retreat on hiring, consumers could lose confidence in the economy and potentially dim President Barack Obama’s re-election hopes.

Ashworth and other economists cited the weather for the latest jobs report. A warm January and February allowed companies to hire workers for outdoor jobs a few weeks earlier than usual, effectively stealing jobs from March. It partially explains a 34,000-job drop in retail hiring and a 7,000 drop in construction jobs.

“Our winter didn’t really exist,” said Alan Amdahl, who runs his own construction company in Sioux Falls, S.D. “It’s just incredible. People didn’t hibernate.”

Economists also say the numbers can bounce around from month to month. Consistently creating 200,000 jobs a month is tough. The economy hasn’t put together four straight months of 200,000 or more new jobs since early 2000.

Economists are still encouraged by the recent hiring trend: The economy has generated an average 212,000 jobs a month from January through March.

Anthony Chan, chief economist at JP Morgan Wealth Management, noted strong growth among businesses that are especially sensitive to the economy’s health. Hotels and restaurants hired 39,000 workers. Manufacturers added 37,000.

The factory hiring is especially welcome. Expanding factories create more jobs at the mines that produce raw materials, in warehouses and at trucking companies and at utilities that generate power.

Government jobs, which declined by an average 22,000 a month last year, fell just 1,000 in March. An improving economy is generating tax revenue and easing budget problems at city halls and statehouses across the country.

The March slowdown brings back painful memories of what happened in mid-2010 and 2011, when the economy lost momentum and job growth sputtered.

The job market had been on a recent roll. From December through February, the country added 734,000 jobs. The only three-month stretch that was better since the recession ended was March through May 2010, when the government was hiring tens of thousands of temporary workers for the census.

Companies across the country are hiring:

_ Nimble Storage, a young information technology company in San Jose, Calif., is rapidly adding staff to keep up with demand for its data storage devices. Anup Singh, the company’s chief financial officer, says the explosive growth of data and the need for companies to store, analyze and deliver it is driving rapid expansion. Nimble Storage has added 30 employees so far this year, bringing its workforce to 175 cash advance america. It expects to hire 70 more by the end of the year. They are hiring engineers, sales people and customer support staff.

_ Landry & Kling Cruise Event Services in Miami, which arranges events on cruise ships, has added two workers this year and plans to hire two more. Sales are strong.

“It’s like the floodgates are opening,” says CEO and co-founder Joyce Kling. “There’s an energy to our day now. We see a lot of leads floating through.”

_ IdeaPaint, a company that makes washable paint that people can use erasable markers on, has hired seven workers in the last three months. Sales have risen sharply and are expected to keep rising. So the Ashland, Mass.-based company has more plans to hire _ it has 31 employees now and expects to have 40 at the end of the year.

“We just had a board meeting yesterday and agreed to become more aggressive with our hiring, with our advertising, with our investment spending. We’re very confident,” CEO Bob Munroe said.

The unemployment rate has dropped from 9.1 percent last August to 8.2 percent last month, the lowest since Obama’s first month in the White House.

Each month, the government does one survey to learn how many jobs were created and another survey to determine the unemployment rate. Those surveys can produce results that sometimes seem to conflict.

One is called the payroll survey. It asks mostly large companies and government agencies how many people they employed during the month. This survey produces the number of jobs gained or lost.

The other is the household survey. Government workers ask whether the adults in a household have a job. Those who don’t are asked whether they’re looking for one. If they are, they’re considered unemployed. If they aren’t, they’re not considered in the work force and aren’t counted as unemployed. The household survey produces each month’s unemployment rate.

Unlike the payroll survey, the household survey captures farm workers, the self-employed and people who work for new companies. It also provides a better snapshot of hiring by small businesses.

In March, the household survey showed that the number of people who say they have a job fell by 31,000 and that a significantly larger number of people _ 79,000 _ stopped looking for a job. That is why the unemployment rate dipped.

Some economists, most notably Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, say the job market faces bigger problems than unseasonably warm weather and month-to-month volatility in the employment numbers. They say the economy isn’t growing fast enough to sustain strong job growth and to push the unemployment rate down rapidly.

The economy is expected to grow 2 percent to 2.5 percent this year. Chris Jones, of TD Economics, says that is not fast enough for sustain the monthly average of 245,000 jobs created from December through February. He expects the economy to average 200,000 new jobs a month in the April-June quarter and then to pick up speed.

“The last few months of aggressive employment growth were inconsistent with underlying economic fundamentals,” Jones said. “March’s number, while still weak, actually makes sense.”

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The unemployment rate has fallen dramatically over the last six months, but just how low can it go?

The answer is being debated among two camps of prominent economic thinkers. One school of thought says that unemployment will return to around 5% as the economy eventually recovers. But an opposing view states that permanent changes in the labor market mean higher unemployment is here to stay.

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Obama battles job crisis

Before Obama even took office, America had lost 4.4 million jobs. Track his progress since then.

Among those who believe the first, more optimistic scenario is Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. He thinks that unemployment will fall as part of the regular business cycle, and stimulative policies that boost demand could bring us back to a more normal unemployment rate of between 5% and 6% some time after 2014.

There’s plenty of research to back that up. A recent report by economists at Harvard, the San Francisco Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund suggests that three-quarters of the sharp rise in unemployment during the financial crisis was in fact due to cyclical, not permanent, factors.

And unemployment has indeed fallen sharply as the economy has slowly recovered from the recession. As of February, the unemployment rate stood at 8.3%, a substantial drop from 10% at the height of the financial crisis.

Check the unemployment rate in your state

Under the second, far less rosy scenario, 5% unemployment is out of reach. Devotees of "structural" unemployment, believe permanent shifts mean the job market may never fully recover, even as the broader economy does cash advance.

Nobel Prize winning economist Edmund Phelps, for example, calls a return to a 5% unemployment rate a "pipe-dream."

Phelps likens the economy to a skater who’s taken a bad fall. Just getting a boost might not be enough, because the skater may have a few broken bones.

What are those broken bones?

Less innovation, increased competition from low-wage countries, more efficient technology and a shortage of high-tech skills among American workers may all be to blame.

Another problem: Baby Boomers are working longer than their predecessors, creating a demographic shift in the labor market.

Plus, many Americans are finding themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time.

"Many workers do not have the skills required by employers in the location where employers are seeking jobs," Wells Fargo Chief Economist John Silvia said in a recent research note.

All of these factors are a recipe for a longer lasting shift in the labor market, and mean stimulative policies won’t have much of an impact, according to the structuralists.

So just how much further will unemployment fall?

The Labor Department will release March’s unemployment rate on Friday. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney are expecting the report to show the unemployment rate remained at 8.3% for the month.

Longer term forecasts are all over the map.

The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the unemployment rate will eventually fall as low as 5.3%, but not until 2021. Economists at Goldman Sachs, however, estimate that due to structural reasons the new normal unemployment rate may now be 6% at best.

The biggest wild card that could shift that balance is the long-term unemployed. Of the 12.8 million Americans who are unemployed, 42.6% have been out of work for six months or more.

"If progress in reducing unemployment is too slow, the long-term unemployed will see their skills and labor force attachment atrophy further possibly converting a cyclical problem into a structural one," Bernanke said last week. 

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You’ve heard it a thousand times: Health reform will stifle small business and kill jobs.

But some business owners are telling another story — it just might make health insurance more affordable.

"This is all about leveling the playing field so small businesses get a fair shake, so we can effectively compete against larger companies," said Mike Roach, co-owner of Paloma Clothing in Portland, Ore.

Roach is a member of the National Federation of Independent Business, a powerful trade group that helped propel the case before the Supreme Court. He has also joined the American Small Business Majority, which is on a crusade against the idea that health reform is a job killer.

Health care reform isn’t a job killer - yet

He and others pin their optimism about the 2010 Affordable Care Act on the promise of new statewide insurance exchanges.

The exchanges, set to start in 2014, could allow individuals and companies access to less expensive health insurance by pooling together and spreading out risk.

Roach doesn’t worry about one of the main criticisms of the law — a rule forcing companies of 50 or more employees to provide insurance or face fines. That’s because he’s nowhere near that threshold. He is among the 5.2 million firms with fewer than 20 workers, a group that makes up 90% of small employers.

What does worry him is the cost of covering his employees.

Paloma Clothing has been offering insurance since 2008; today six of its nine workers are opting in. Roach is paying close to $17,000 annually — not a trivial expense.

Every February, just before Roach and his wife, Kim Osgood, sit down with their insurance broker, they toss the same ideas back and forth.

"Can we continue to be as generous?" she asks.

"We could lose these people," he reminds her. "The 15% they pay is already a substantial burden for them."

They’ve always renewed, even when costs jumped 20% in 2010. Roach admits it wasn’t entirely from the kindness of his heart. He is afraid of losing workers to Nordstrom, a large chain with a few stores a short drive away.

Roach also supports another aspect of health reform, a tax credit for small companies that provide workers health insurance. The $5,500 credit he received for 2010 is far above the $1,407 average.

For others, the insurance exchanges would be a place their workers could go themselves.

"If my employees have health coverage, they’ll take care of themselves, be around a lot longer and be very productive for the company," said Anthony Serianni, president of Omicron Biochemicals in South Bend, Ind. "Ailing employees leave, and you have to hire new people. It doesn’t make sense to have that kind of turnover."

What if the health reform mandate dies?

Serianni offers his employees extra salary to help them cover as much as 65% of their own insurance costs. So if they can find cheaper coverage in the exchange, his tab will fall too.

Roberta Tichenor, owner of Annie Bloom’s Books in Portland, picks up 80% of the insurance costs for her three full-time employees. That amounts to $30,000 a year.

Her 14 part-time employees are left to fend for themselves, and she hopes the exchanges would give them an affordable option, diminishing their incentive to quit for a company that offers insurance.

"I think [health reform] actually saves jobs because it’s not easy to attract quality employees to a job that pays $10 an hour," Tichenor said. 

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