Mexico’s benchmark local bonds are poised for the biggest annual rally in four years after underperforming regional debt in 2009 as the economy recovers and the peso gains, Stone Harbor Investment Partners said.
The yield on Mexico’s 10 percent peso bond due in December 2024 may plunge about 40 basis points, or 0.40 percentage point, in 2010, to 7.80 percent, said Pablo Cisilino, who manages $11.5 billion in emerging-market assets at Stone Harbor in New York. That would be the biggest one-year drop since 2006.
Mexican domestic debt returned 7.7 percent last year, less than the 10 percent return posted by Latin American local bonds on average, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s ELMI+ index. The region’s second-largest economy will grow 2.95 percent in 2010 after contracting 7 percent last year, the most since 1932, the median forecast of 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey shows.
“People were too pessimistic on the growth outlook for Mexico and very pessimistic about the peso,” Cisilino said. “Things are changing. They’re starting to come around.”
Daily volume in Mexican bonds traded in the secondary interbank market doubled to an average of 9.4 billion pesos in January’s first 14 days from the same period a year earlier, Citigroup Inc. said in a Jan. 19 report.
The peso is up 1.6 percent this year, the second-best performance against the dollar among 16 major currencies, behind South Korea’s Won, on prospects increased demand from the U.S., Mexico’s biggest export market, will help spur the recovery.
‘Strong Recovery’
The currency rose 0.6 percent to 12.8991 per U.S. dollar at 11:02 a.m. New York time. The yield on the 10 percent peso bond due in December 2024 fell four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 8.18 percent, according to Banco Santander SA.
Miguel Messmacher, the chief economist at Mexico’s Finance Ministry, said in an interview Jan. 22 that there is a “very high” probability the country’s economy will grow more than 3 percent this year.
“Exports are showing a very strong recovery,” Messmacher said. “There are no doubts about the stability of external accounts in Mexico.”
Cisilino predicts the yield on Mexico’s 8.5 percent peso bonds maturing in 2018 may drop 50 basis points this year. The yield on the 2024 bonds slid 16 basis points in the past three months to 8.22 percent on Jan. 22, according to Banco Santander SA. The $135 million Stone Harbor Emerging Market Debt Fund that Cisilino helps manage returned 43 percent last year and is up 0.9 percent in 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Borrowing Costs
Peso bonds may also rise because inflation is unlikely to pick up enough in the next six months for central bank Governor Agustin Carstens to raise borrowing costs, according to Alejandro Hernandez, who oversees 13.5 billion pesos ($1 billion) in fixed-income assets at Grupo Financiero Interacciones SA in Mexico City no fax payday loans.
“There could be a rally in the first half of the year” if the bank keeps its inflation forecast and the peso remains strong, Hernandez said.
Citigroup’s Mexico City-based Banamex unit, Banco Santander SA and Bank of Nova Scotia are among six banks that pushed back their forecast for interest-rate increases after Carstens, 51, said this month a stronger peso will curb inflation.
Mexican inflation has absorbed price increases “well,” Carstens said at a conference in Mexico City on Jan. 8. He said the increases are coming from the government raising taxes and state-controlled prices.
“The direct impact on prices is limited, and will be transitory and fade after a year,” Carstens said.
Rate Forecasts
Banamex revised its call for a rate rise to September from May while Santander, Spain-based Banco Santander pushed back its forecast to October from February. Toronto-based Scotiabank shifted its call to April from February. The median estimate of 21 economists in a Jan. 12 Banamex survey is for borrowing costs to start rising in July, four months later than they predicted last month.
Inflation may quicken more than the central bank forecasts, said Ricardo Aguilar, an economist at Invex Casa de Bolsa SA in Mexico City.
“I think they’ll raise forecasts,” said Aguilar, who predicts an inflation rate of 5.44 percent this year and says the bank may increase forecasts in July. “There are other goods and services that could suffer a greater impact than what the market and the bank predict.”
The central bank will probably keep its inflation forecasts unchanged in its quarterly report on Jan. 27, said Luis Flores, an economist at Ixe Grupo Financiero SA in Mexico City. Policy makers said last month the annual inflation rate may climb as high as 4.75 percent in the first three months of 2010, rising to 5 percent in the April-to-July period and 5.25 percent in the second half.
Inflation
The annual inflation rate was 4.17 percent in the first half of January.
“The idea is gaining ground little by little that the bank won’t move rates,” Flores said. “We’ll see more interest in the debt market.”
Mexico’s benchmark Bolsa stock index fell 4.4 percent to 30,830.91 last week. Cemex SAB, the largest cement maker in the Americas, declined 8.1 percent to 13.73 pesos last week. Gruma SAB, Mexico’s largest maker of corn flour for tortillas, retreated 4 percent to 27.4 pesos from 28.55.
The Mexican currency dropped 2.1 percent to 12.9744 pesos per dollar last week.
Yields on Mexico’s benchmark peso bond due 2024 rose seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 8.22 percent, according to Banco Santander SA.
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