01/09/2010 (11:13 pm)

Bank sends nouveau riche clients to boot camp

Filed under: money |

Call it financial literacy for the rich.

Bank of Montreal’s private banking division will start offering cross-Canada seminars next month specially designed for affluent adults, including those who marry into money.

The invitation-only program enables a high net-worth client to enrol a spouse or another adult relative in a financial boot camp of sorts that teaches the basics of money management and keeping the family fortune intact.

BMO’s "Financial Focus" part-day seminars tackle a variety of day-to-day issues such as budgeting, mortgages, banking, cash-flow management, credit, investing and estate planning.

It launched the program at the urging of its well-off clients. Many believe a spouse or an adult family member lacks experience with personal finances, said Sara Plant, vice-president and national director of wealth services with BMO Harris Private Banking.

"We’re often having very personal discussions with them about their families. And in those discussions, it comes to light that our clients are experiencing some kind of change or transition," Plant said.

"There may be a marriage, a divorce, a death in the family, an inheritance or selling a business, a retirement – these are sort of transitional changes that we find our clients up against."

A high net-worth client is someone with investable assets of at least $500,000. The new spousal seminars are the latest evolution of a program the bank launched last year to educate rich youth, aged 18 to 25, on money management.

Its staff had received a flood of requests for training. Some clients worried their children would squander inheritances, while others believed their offspring were "under the influence" of an untrustworthy person such as a devious spouse or business partner.

"Individual clients have said, `I know you’ve got one for young people, but do you have one for adults to deal with the issues that we face?’" Plant said.

The bank held a pilot version of its new adult course in Toronto on Nov. 3. Women mostly attended but the seminar is geared toward both sexes. Sessions will be held in major cities from February to April cash advance payday loans.

BMO is not the only bank coaching clients on coping with the pressures of being rich. TD Waterhouse Private Client Services offers special seminars for wealthy women called "Securing Your Future" and a guide book for the children of prosperous clients.

Its high net-worth planning group, meanwhile, provides a "Monte Carlo" analysis to clients – a computer simulation that outlines the trade-offs between short-term wants and long-term capital preservation.

"The first million dollars seems like it will last forever, which isn’t true," said Dave Kelly, group head of the Private Investment Counsel at TD Waterhouse Private Client Services. "For anyone who is new into wealth – whether that’s a lottery win, inheriting or marrying into – … the concept of $5 million, $10 million, $20 million is awfully hard to appreciate when you haven’t had it before."

Last month, RBC Private Banking launched a financial literacy kit for clients’ children, in addition to individual education sessions. "One of their top concerns is preserving wealth for future generations," RBC says.

The Bank of Nova Scotia’s Private Client Group, meanwhile, held a one-day money management pilot program called "Let’s Talk $" for its clients’ adult kids, aged 22 to 27, in November. It will hold at least two more seminars this year and one will be in Toronto.

A number of foreign banks, including Citigroup, JP Morgan and UBS, are also offering so-called "affluenza" courses. Those programs teach skills such as distinguishing between gold diggers and true friends, according to press reports.

Barron’s, meanwhile, ran a 2005 story stating the "Brat Patrol" was the new "battleground" for private bankers. "Among wealthy parents and their bankers, the rallying cry is: `Don’t let the kids become the next Paris Hilton,’" the article said.

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12/29/2009 (4:30 am)

Personal income: Biggest bump in 6 months

Filed under: money, term |

Personal income posted its largest gain in half a year in November and spending by individuals rose for a second straight month, according to government data released Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said income climbed by 0.4%, or $49.7 billion, during the month, after an upwardly revised 0.3% rise in October. That was the biggest gain since May, when it rose 1.5%. The figure was still below a consensus estimate of a 0.5% rise collected by Briefing.com.

Spending by individuals rose 0.5% last month, or $47.9 billion, below analysts’ expectations of a 0.7% hike. Personal spending was up 0 emergency payday loan.6% in October.

Personal savings totaled $521.1 billion in November, or 4.7% of disposable income, compared to $516.7 billion in October.

The report came one day after the government said that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, grew 2.2% in the third quarter.

Tuesday’s report showed that consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the nation’s economy, was weaker than previously thought. 

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12/24/2009 (9:02 pm)

Construction permits for new houses up sharply

Filed under: money, online |

Home building is picking up once again in the St. Louis region.

The number of permits for new single-family homes jumped 69 percent in November from the same month last year, according to new figures from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis.

The sharp jump was due in part to better weather, and to an exceptionally slow November last year, but it was the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year gains and echoed a national increase reported last week.

The numbers add to the growing sentiment that the market for new homes has bottomed out and that the supply of new construction is coming back into line with demand, after overbuilding in recent years. That has some market-watchers predicting a home building rebound in the spring.

Still, the market has a long way to go to return to past heights. For the year through November, local permits were running 17 percent behind last year’s pace and two-thirds off their peak in 2005.

Source

12/19/2009 (10:57 pm)

Roseman: Going to bat to get readers their refunds

Filed under: money |

Return policies aren’t what they used to be in the days of Timothy Eaton’s "goods satisfactory or money refunded."

Leon’s Furniture Ltd. has a policy that all sales are final on appliances and electronics products, as Bryan Richards found when he brought back his mother’s Toshiba TV within two weeks.

"The channels would not change, the screen would go blank and the controls would freeze," he said.

While he was told the return policy was printed on the back of the invoice, he said it wasn’t displayed prominently in the store or explained to him before the purchase.

Leon’s spokesman Bruce Bergeron said the store succeeded in getting a replacement through Toshiba.

"Thanks for your intervention," Richards said.

"We have learned a valuable lesson, which I will pass along to friends and relatives."

Peter Coutts was helping his parents with a Sealy mattress bought at Leon’s last year.

"I successfully got Sealy to replace one mattress because the defect met their criteria (a measured amount of sagging)," he said.

A few months later, the replacement was also sagging. His parents couldn’t get a good night’s sleep.

Bergeron said Sealy had agreed to "look after the consumer and offer a reselection," even though the second mattress did not meet the terms for replacement.

Coutts said his parents would follow through on the exchange of the old mattress, even though they had lost confidence in Sealy products.

"I would rate Leon’s a five out of 10 in after-sale service," he said. "They don’t provide direct numbers for service representatives (you must go through the main switchboard), nor do they provide email addresses."

Sandeep Nigam wrote to me when he was denied a refund of a $20 prepaid Rogers card that he purchased at a No Frills grocery store quick guaranteed personal loans.

The cashier had scanned the card – thereby activating it – after it had fallen onto the conveyor belt in error.

He did not want a Rogers card and did not notice the charge on his grocery bill until after he got home.

Although he came back within a half hour, No Frills said he had to deal with Rogers.

Meanwhile, Rogers said the prepaid cards were nonrefundable and he had to take it up with the store manager.

Things were resolved quickly when I forwarded his email to Loblaw Cos. Ltd., which owns No Frills.

"We have offered the customer a $20 gift card and he is returning the Rogers card," said spokeswoman Karen Gumbs.

Anne Hamilton asked for help with Air Miles.

Her father had booked a free flight to Phoenix this Christmas, but did not realize that he had a conflict with his curling team’s final games.

When he called to reschedule, he was told he’d have to pay a $209.50 change fee to the airline and declined to do so.

"Given that he has a personal commitment that cannot be moved to another date, Air Miles will absorb all the change fees charged by the airline so he is able to attend his event," said Shawna Rossi, a spokeswoman for the loyalty program.

Before you buy, always ask: Can I return this? Is there a deadline? Will I get a full or partial refund? This can help avoid surprises later.

Write to onyourside@thestar.ca or check the On Your Side blog at www.ellenroseman.com

eroseman@thestar.ca

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12/03/2009 (7:05 pm)

ECB May Unveil Exit Plan, Keep Key Rate at 1% to Aid Recovery

Filed under: legal, money |

The European Central Bank may today announce plans to scale back its emergency lending while keeping interest rates at a record low to foster an economic recovery.

ECB policy makers meeting in Frankfurt will leave the benchmark interest rate at 1 percent, according to all 54 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. President Jean-Claude Trichet will say the ECB’s third offer of 12-month loans to banks on Dec. 15 will be the last and may also signal a reduction in other lending operations, economists said.

The ECB, which has been flooding banks with cheap cash to fight Europe’s worst recession since World War II, said last month it will gradually withdraw the extra liquidity to prevent inflation as the economy gathers strength. At the same time, officials don’t want to give the impression they’re moving closer to rate increases, people familiar with their discussions said. Any indication that the ECB could tighten policy sooner than the Federal Reserve may fuel further gains in the euro.

“This is going to be the big one,” said James Nixon, co- chief European economist at Societe Generale SA in London. “They need to very, very carefully set out a timetable for how liquidity will be drawn down, but they don’t want to plant expectations that the exit implies they’ll raise interest rates.”

The ECB announces its rate decision at 1:45 p.m. and Trichet holds a press conference 45 minutes later.

Global Stimulus

While Australia’s central bank has raised rates three times in as many months, the Fed and the Bank of England have signaled they’re in no rush to increase borrowing costs from record lows as their economies struggle to shake off the effects of the biggest global slump since the Great Depression. The Bank of Japan announced new measures this week, saying it will offer three-month loans to banks at 0.1 percent to combat deflation.

Trichet will today unveil the ECB’s new staff projections, including the first forecasts for 2011. Governing Council members such as Luxembourg’s Yves Mersch and Slovakia’s Ivan Sramko have said they expect the bank to revise up its outlook for the 16-nation economy, which emerged from recession in the third quarter.

In September, the central bank said it expected gross domestic product to grow 0.2 percent in 2010 after shrinking 4.1 this year. It projected inflation of 0.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year. The ECB aims to keep inflation just below 2 percent over the medium term.

‘Gradual Recovery’

The December projections will show “a gradual recovery and moderately positive inflation,” said Nick Matthews, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “They’ll be consistent with the view that the policy rate can remain low for a long time.”

The euro has gained 20 percent against the dollar since mid-February, rising above $1.51 yesterday, which is threatening to hurt European exports.

Some policy makers have nevertheless expressed concern that banks are becoming too reliant on ECB cash, and are pushing for the extraordinary lending measures to be withdrawn.

“Not all our liquidity measures will be needed to the same extent as in the past,” Trichet said on Nov. 20. “Eventually, the administration of painkillers must be stopped if patients are to get on their own two feet.”

Trichet signaled on Nov. 5 that the ECB is unlikely to renew its 12-month loans to banks after December’s offering and promised to give details today. He’ll also say whether the ECB has decided to alter the interest rate on the loans. People familiar with the deliberations said last week that policy makers were leaning toward keeping the rate fixed at 1 percent.

‘Balancing Act’

The ECB may announce plans to reduce the frequency of its three-month and six-month loans, which it currently offers every month. The “first steps of a gradual phasing-out of non- standard measures” may include “a lower frequency for three- month and six-month refinancing operations,” Belgian council member Guy Quaden said Nov. 16.

Trichet could also field questions about Dubai’s decision to seek to delay debt repayments, which roiled financial markets this week, and Greece’s ballooning budget deficit. ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos met with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou last weekend to discuss the issue.

With markets still jittery about the sustainability of the economic recovery, the ECB will be wary of upsetting the apple cart, said Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Europe Ltd. in London.

“The message Trichet wants to convey is that the ECB is well placed to remove its monetary stimulus and has a strategy for doing so, but that it’s not going to do it too quickly,” he said. “It’s a bit of a balancing act.”

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10/28/2009 (5:51 am)

India Central Bank Begins Exit From Monetary Stimulus

Filed under: money, online |

India’s central bank took the first step toward withdrawing its record monetary stimulus as inflation pressures build, ordering lenders to keep more cash in government bonds.

“It may be appropriate to sequence the ‘exit’ in a calibrated way,” Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said today after increasing the statutory liquidity ratio to 25 percent from 24 percent and raising the inflation forecast. The central bank kept benchmark policy rates unchanged, while maintaining its economic growth forecast of 6 percent “with an upward bias.”

Stocks fell the most in two months after the statement spurred speculation the Reserve Bank of India will boost borrowing costs by year-end, eroding corporate profits. Today’s shift also signals intensifying global concern about consumer and asset-price increases, with Norway tomorrow forecast to follow Australia in raising rates this month.

“We will start to see G-20 economies exiting now, starting with the emerging ones and then the advanced countries,” said Mridul Saggar, the Mumbai-based chief economist at Kotak Securities Ltd. “In India’s case, growth is coming back on track and inflation is becoming quite a concern.”

The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive index fell 2.3 percent to 16,351.58 at 2:50 p.m. local time. The rupee extended losses to 0.7 percent, trading at 46.98 against the dollar.

Bonds Rise

Bonds rose because some banks will need to boost their holdings as a result of today’s move, said Murthy Nagarajan, a fund manager at Mirae Asset Global Investment in Mumbai. The yield on the 6.90 percent note due July 2019 fell 9 basis points to 7.32 percent, the biggest drop since Sept. 15, according to the central bank’s trading system.

Subbarao, who has injected 5.85 trillion rupees ($130 billion) of cash since September 2008 to protect the Indian economy from the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, said draining that money has become a “central issue in our policy matrix.” The liquidity injection was the equivalent to almost 9 percent of India’s gross domestic product, Asia’s third-largest.

The central bank said “unconventional” steps taken during the global meltdown in the past year can now be reversed to damp price gains, adding that reversing the “conventional measures is not considered appropriate for now.”

Subbarao maintained the reverse repurchase rate at 3.25 percent, the repurchase rate at 4.75 percent and the cash reserve ratio at 5 percent, in line with the median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. He increased the inflation forecast for the year to March 31 to 6.5 percent from 5 percent.

Exporter Credit

The central bank cut the refinance limit to exporters to 15 percent of their eligible outstanding credit from 50 percent, and asked lenders to set aside more funds as provision for loans to property companies.

India becomes the second country, after Australia, among Group of 20 nations to take steps to boost borrowing costs, underscoring a rising threat of accelerating consumer and asset prices. At the same time, today’s decision risks damping a recovery from India’s weakest growth pace in six years.

Subbarao said today’s action wouldn’t affect the “liquidity position” of the banking system, since most commercial banks have government bond holdings amounting to 27.6 percent of their deposits.

Central banks globally have stepped up their vigil against inflation and asset-price increases.

Global Context

The Reserve Bank of Australia increased rates three weeks ago, citing costlier real estate. Norway’s Norges Bank is set to raise borrowing costs tomorrow, according to a Bloomberg survey. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong Tae said Oct. 23 that keeping rates at a record low may not be healthy for the economy.

At the U.S. Federal Reserve, officials under Chairman Ben S. Bernanke are reviewing whether recent gains in asset prices and narrowing credit spreads are justified as they try to ensure near- zero borrowing costs don’t create bubbles.

Subbarao said there are “definitive” indications that India’s economy is recovering. Accordingly, attention around the world has shifted from “managing the crisis to managing the recovery.” He said the prospects for Indian industry have become “more promising” and with the revival in the stock market and international financial markets, there will be a pick-up in investments.

Political Factor

The decision to signal tighter monetary conditions comes after Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee told Bloomberg-UTV television channel on Oct. 8 that promoting economic growth and containing inflation are both important and the central bank shouldn’t “compromise” one for the other.

Subbarao is concerned about consumer-price inflation in India that’s running above 10 percent and may accelerate further after the weakest monsoon rains since 1972 create food shortages. India’s $1.2 trillion economy depends on the June to September rains to water crops.

India uses wholesale price data as its key inflation gauge; consumer price indexes are calculated on the basis of rural and urban workers and don’t capture the aggregate price picture.

Wholesale prices rose for a sixth week on Oct. 10, gaining 1.21 percent. Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC Group Plc in Singapore, expects the rate to hit 8 percent by March 31. Asset prices are also rising, evidenced by the 75 percent climb in the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive index since January.

“The central bank faces a very delicate situation to manage growth and inflation,” said Ravi Sud, chief financial officer at Hero Honda Motors Ltd., India’s biggest motorcycle maker. “On balance, inflation is the risk as it will hurt consumption and eventually hurt growth as well.”

It will be a “big challenge” to sustain Hero Honda’s profit margins because of rising commodity prices, Sud said last week. Hero Honda, based in New Delhi, is the Indian affiliate of Japan’s Honda Motor Co.

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10/14/2009 (10:06 am)

Asian wealth slides, rich tiptoe back into markets

Filed under: management, money |

The number of high net-worth individuals in Asia Pacific slumped 14 percent in 2008 and they lost over a fifth of their wealth, leading to only cautious moves from cash back into stocks this year, Merrill Lynch and Capgemini said on Tuesday.

The financial crisis spurred a flight to safe assets, with cash holdings higher than in other regions at 29 percent and a surge in demand for gold, especially in China and Thailand, Merrill Lynch and Capgemini said in their Asia-Pacific Wealth Report 2009.

“We expect them to remain cautious,” said Eng Huat Kong, head of South Asia at Merrill Lynch wealth management.

“Allocation to cash has certainly reduced and they have begun to get back into the equity market,” he said at a briefing.

The annual report said despite last year’s setback, the region will be one of the fastest drivers of growth among such millionaires, predicting compound annual growth of 8.8 percent in the wealth of this group until 2018.

The report expected Asian economic growth to be more than double that of world growth next year at 3.5 percent. Many policymakers from South Korea to the United States say growth-supporting policies need to be maintained to avoid the risk of a double-dip recession.

“If there is another crisis, the impact will not be as dramatic as last year,” Kong said.

The report said the region’s wealthy are concentrated in Japan and China, which together made up 72 percent of the total, up slightly from the previous year as they saw milder losses than those in many other countries pay day loan lenders.

QUESTIONS FROM CLIENTS

By the end of last year India only made up 4.2 percent of the $7.4 trillion of wealth held up this group, defined as those with $1 million or more in investable assets.

The high net worth populations in India and Hong Kong saw the biggest pullback in 2008, on sharp falls in market capitalization, slumping housing prices and a drop in global demand for exports.

Overall exposure among the regions’ wealthy to equities shrank to 23 percent at the end of last year and real estate holdings edged up to 22 percent.

Asia’s wealthy are more often first-generation entrepreneurs willing to take on more risk and actively trade for high returns, compared to the older inherited wealth in Europe and North America, private bankers say, but the report said it expected cautious asset allocation in the short term and a more balanced approach in the long run.

The wealth management industry is in the midst of unprecedented change as volatile financial markets and the erosion of bank secrecy challenges traditional business models. “Clients are asking more questions, making sure they are dealing with the right institution and banker,” said Kong.

“International banks will still have the key market share.” 

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10/05/2009 (12:06 pm)

Inflation fears eating you up? Consider TIPS

Filed under: money |

One steady bit of good economic news: Inflation remains near zero. So who would want to pay extra these days to add a dose of inflation protection in their portfolio?

Plenty of people. It turns out sales are hot for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, a common hedge against rising prices known by their acronym TIPS.

New money from investors and market gains have boosted total assets in mutual funds investing in TIPS nearly 36 percent so far this year, according to Morningstar Inc.

It’s part of a broader shift by many investors who have been scared away by stocks, despite the market’s hefty rebound from its March low. They’ve been piling into the greater safety of bonds, and TIPS — while not without risk — are about as safe as you can get.
The value of the underlying investment in TIPS rises with inflation, providing an additional layer of protection beyond what Treasury bonds offer.

Hardly anyone expects inflation to re-emerge as a big threat anytime soon, so TIPS aren’t necessarily the best short-term investment. But historically low interest rates and the federal government’s growing deficit are expected to drive prices higher, especially once the economy truly gets back on its feet and spending rebounds.

Here are some common questions and answers about TIPS:

How do TIPS work?

Introduced by the government in 1997, TIPS are a type of Treasury bond — investments that are super-safe, provided you believe the government will continue to make good on its credit obligations.

TIPS adjust their yield based on changes in the Consumer Price Index. The principal in TIPS adjusts every six months. The so-called "coupon" rises when inflation grows, and decreases in the less-likely instance of deflation. When the bond matures, you’re paid the adjusted principal or the original principal, whichever is greater. TIPS are sold in maturities of five, 10 and 20 years.

Investors in "nominal" Treasury bonds get a fixed rate of return if they hold the bonds until they mature. For example, 10-year Treasury notes are now yielding about 3.32 percent per year.

On the other hand, 10-year TIPS are yielding 1.55 percent, which doesn’t seem so good, until you consider what havoc inflation might wreak fast pay day loans. The difference — or "break-even rate" — between those two numbers is 1.77 percentage points. That suggests investors are expecting inflation will average 1.77 percent per year over the next 10 years. So if inflation exceeds that amount and erodes Treasuries’ current 3.32 percent yield, TIPS investors will be glad they paid for the protection.

Inflation had historically averaged 2 to 3 percent until falling to near zero when the market tanked last fall and deflation fears set in.

How have TIPS’ values held up lately?

Inflation and interest rate expectations are constantly changing, which is reflected in the prices traders are willing to pay for TIPS. Lately, TIPS have generally been seen as a good deal. Mutual funds investing in TIPS have returned an average of 8.63 percent so far this year, according to Morningstar. That puts TIPS in the middle of the performance pack among fixed-income fund categories.

How can I buy TIPS?

TIPS are available for purchase from the Treasury at http://www.treasurydirect.gov to avoid brokerage fees. If you’re not sure you can keep the bond until maturity and are nervous about managing your investment over time, you can buy into a mutual fund that focuses on TIPS, or an exchange-traded fund. Like TIPS mutual funds, TIPS ETFs hold baskets of TIPS with varying maturities but can be traded like a stock.

TIPS appear to carry little risk. Is that the case?

Any bond is subject to risk from rising interest rates, and TIPS are no exception. If the Fed boosts interest rates faster than inflation grows, or before inflation sets in, TIPS’ values will erode.

They also can be hit in a falling market, as happened last fall. Many institutional investors had to come up with cash to meet clients’ orders to pull out their money, forcing them to sell their most liquid investments. TIPS often fit the bill, and massive TIPs sales reduced prices. But as seen this year, they’ve bounced back.

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10/02/2009 (9:15 pm)

Washington Post, Bloomberg will start news service

Filed under: money |

The Washington Post and Bloomberg will start a service in January to distribute a selection of their news to newspapers, Websites and other subscribers, a day after the Post ended a similar arrangement with Tribune Co’s Los Angeles Times.

The service, “The Washington Post News Service with Bloomberg News,” also will produce a business page on washingtonpost.com that includes news from the Post and Bloomberg’s website, the companies said on Thursday.

The decision to start the news service comes as Bloomberg may be trying to broaden its reach beyond its base of financial clients who read its news on Bloomberg terminals.

In a sign of this, the company is the likely front-runner to buy BusinessWeek magazine from McGraw-Hill, sources familiar with the situation have told Reuters.

Bloomberg makes a limited amount of its news available to the public on its website, but restricts much of it to its clients as well as newspapers and other news sources that pick up its stories.

The Post’s news also will be featured on Bloomberg’s professional service, the companies said.

The news service, which begins on January 1, 2010, will feature 120 stories a day, along with photos, graphics and other story elements.

Financial terms of the service were not disclosed. Thomson Reuters Corp competes with Bloomberg in providing news and financial data.

A day earlier, the Post said it would end a 49-year-old wire service that it started with the Los Angeles Times. Washington Post Co Vice Chairman told subscribers in a memo that it made sense to proceed separately.

(Reporting by Robert MacMillan; editing by Carol Bishopric)

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10/01/2009 (3:03 pm)

Mortgage demand falls despite lower rates

Filed under: money |

U.S. mortgage applications fell last week despite the lowest loan rates in four months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday, in another sign that housing will likely recover slowly from its three-year plunge.

Home loan applications fell a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent in the September 25 week, driven down by a 6.2 percent drop in demand for purchase loans and a 0.8 percent decline in refinancing requests.

Borrowing costs inched closer to record lows, with average 30-year rates dipping 0.03 percentage point to 4.94 percent.

The 30-year rates were the lowest since the week ended May 22, at 4.81 percent, after hitting an all-time low of 4.61 percent in March, according to the industry group. A year ago, before intensive government interventions, 30-year rates averaged 6.33 percent.

For a related chart of mortgage rates, right click on the code: and select “Related Graph.”

Signs of life have emerged in both home sales and prices, helped by government stimulus programs including an $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit.

The outlook for housing is split, however. Some in the industry predict another sales slide if the tax credit is not renewed and others say there will be a gradual recovery slowed by the usual winter sales malaise.

“We’re going to see another leg down, and if we lose the tax credit it will be a significant leg down,” said John Burns, president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, California.

The main concern is “shadow inventory,” or the stockpiles of homes held by banks or those about to go into foreclosure but yet to be put on the market, he said.

“The one really positive surprise recently has been falling mortgage rates,” and rates at 5 percent or less next year “could definitely help engineer a soft landing,” said Burns.

Another concern is that the first-time buyer credit siphoned demand from next year’s spring sales season, with buyers rushing purchases before the tax incentive disappears.

Existing-home sales in August fell for the first time in four months, but were at the second-highest pace in almost two years. Sales of new houses were below forecasts but up in August for the fifth straight month.

PRICES YET TO BOTTOM

Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh, does not expect another leg down in home sales but is not convinced that prices have hit bottom because of the large inventory of unsold homes.

Home prices rose in July for the third straight month, surpassing forecasts and bolstering the case for housing stability, based on the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller indexes reported on Tuesday. 

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