My finance view

Although construction firms reported a reduction in work backlog nationwide, the southern U.S. showed the most decline, according to the latest report from Associated Builders and Contractors Inc., a national association which represents 25,000 firms in the construction industry.

ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator sharply declined by 9 percent between November 2009 and January 2010.

This index, a forward-looking indicator which measures the amount of construction work under contract to be completed in the future, has slipped 16.3 percent during the last year.

It currently stands at 5.5 months, the lowest point reported in the 15 months ABC has gathered this data.

The sharpest regional decline occurred in the South, falling from 8.12 months in January 2009 to 6.03 months in January 2010.

“The fact that the CBI is now at its lowest point since ABC began measuring the statistic in November 2008 indicates that the nation’s nonresidential construction industry remains mired in its own recession,” said Anirban Basu, ABC chief economist cash advance no fax.

Nonresidential construction tends to lag the overall economy by 12 to 24 months.

“With the broader economy having been in a slow recovery for roughly three quarters, and with the stimulus package still having an impact, the hope had been that some signs of backlog stability would be apparent by now,” Basu said. “However, all indications continue to point toward an ongoing decline in the commercial and industrial construction industry.”

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With austerity the national mindset in this iffy economy, anything hip or trendy may seem extravagant.

Everyone must be too busy clipping sale coupons and saving soap slivers to have time for such frivolity, right? To the contrary, according to some investment experts who believe that hip can be a smart investor direction.

"People don’t feel flush right now so they need a reason to buy stuff," explained Marie Driscoll, retail analyst for Standard & Poor’s Corp. in New York.

The ability to keep up with often-fickle trends is a worthy skill that many companies have failed miserably to master. Those that have done it best often command top dollar for their shares, but their likelihood of continued success could make them worth their premium price.

One retailer that consistently attracts the hippest of young people — ranging in age from the teens to mid-20s — is Urban Outfitters Inc., according to Driscoll. Its ever-changing merchandise, ranging from fashion and furniture to electronics, is part of a strategy to transform casual shoppers into motivated buyers. Its innovative Anthropologie and Free People brands are growing faster than its regular Urban Outfitters stores.

"You go into one of its stores and it’s like a flea market or thrift market, the appeal being that you don’t know what you’re going to see," she explained, noting that even snowy weather didn’t dampen sales. "It has an ear to both guys and girls as target customers and knows how to change to keep up with those customers."

Stock of Urban Outfitters (URBN) is up 4 percent this year after last year’s dramatic 134 percent gain. It receives a consensus "buy" rating from the Wall Street analysts who track it, according to Thomson Reuters.

It is quite possible that when those young customers return home they relax by playing best-selling video game Guitar Hero, which lets them simulate playing the guitar across a variety of rock music songs. It is from Activision Blizzard Inc., the firm that resulted from the 2008 merger of Activision and Vivendi Games.

"Cool games that hardcore gamers like are still coming from the traditional players in this space," noted Toan Tran, technology analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago.

The video game portfolio of Activision Blizzard includes Call of Duty, Tony Hawk and the role-playing game World of Warcraft. If you’re behind the times on those, you’ll surely recognize its Spider-Man and James Bond titles. The durability and worldwide appeal of its franchises, especially throughout Asia, position it for future growth, Tran believes.

The stock of Activision Blizzard (ATVI) is up 5 percent this year after last year’s 29 percent increase. Its consensus analyst rating is between "strong buy" and "buy."

For the modern crowd that expects the latest communication devices, Apple Inc no teletrack payday loans. is hotter than BlackBerry maker Research in Motion, believes Michael Lippert, portfolio manager of Baron iOpportunity Fund (BIOPX) in New York. Although outstanding for e-mail, the BlackBerry hasn’t connected with younger consumers, he said.

"Apple’s iPhone will gain even more market share when it moves to multiple carriers rather than just AT&T," predicted Lippert, who acknowledges BlackBerry’s competency but doesn’t believe the younger crowed is all that excited about it. "I feel that if you can walk into a Verizon store and get a BlackBerry or iPhone for the same price, why will anyone get anything other than an iPhone?"

Apple has remained a relevant company, said Lippert, who expects that its new iPad tablet computer will also be popular with the college-age crowd.

"There is no more hip company in technology than Apple," agreed Tran. "While it remains to be seen how big an impact the iPad will have on the market, I’m leaning toward the view that it will be another huge hit."

The stock of Apple (AAPL) is up 7 percent this year after last year’s 147 percent increase. Its consensus analyst rating is between "strong buy" and "buy."

Lippert’s $182 million Baron iOpportunity Fund is up 82 percent in value over the past 12 months and has a five-year annualized return of 8 percent. Besides Apple, another big holding is Google Inc. (GOOG).

"The YouTube service used by millions of people is one reason why Google is still hip and cool," said Lippert. "Other companies such as Facebook, Twitter and Hulu are at the epicenter of what’s considered cool, but unlike Google they aren’t public companies that you can invest in."

Engadget, a popular Web-based consumer electronics magazine based in Silicon Valley, is also considered hip these days, added Lippert. Not everyone may know that this weblog and podcast operation is owned by AOL Inc., now a stand-alone company after its divorce from Time Warner. Shares of AOL (AOL), up 9 percent this year, are a consensus "hold" among the analysts who track them.

Another Driscoll favorite is J. Crew Group Inc. (JCG), whose merchandise always has a fresh look and increasingly attracts shoppers from luxury designer stores, she said. Meanwhile, Tran admires Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) for its leadership in video games, with Asia the growth driver. Its Rock Band game competes with Activision Blizzard’s Guitar Hero.

Whether 2010 hipness leaders will continue into 2011 and beyond will be decided by their hip customers.

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If the economy cooperates and auto sales recover a bit, General Motors Co. has a reasonable chance of turning a full-year profit in 2010, its new chief financial officer said Wednesday.

Former Microsoft Corp. CFO Chris Liddell, at his first meeting with reporters, said the automaker was making money in Brazil and China, in the middle in North America and struggling in Europe cheapest personal loan rates.

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This is a weekly roundup of promotions, appointments and employee accomplishments in the Birmingham metro area. For more People on the Move, check out the Birmingham Business Journal’s print edition each week. Send announcements to ccrawford@bizjournals.com.

ACCOUNTING

Anna Kathryn Ellis, director of business development at Payroll & Benefit Solutions, was named Hoover Area Chamber of Commerce Ambassador of the Year.

CONSTRUCTION

Doug Jeffords with Jeffords Associates of Birmingham was awarded a contract to monitor and provide owner’s representative services for the construction and renovation work at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville. Jeffords is former vice president of construction for Colonial Properties Trust.

LEGAL

Charlie Waldrep, founding partner of Waldrep Stewart & Kendrick law firm, will speak at Faulkner University Jones School of Law on April 7 about establishing a law practice. Waldrep started his firm in 1978. Waldrep concentrates in representing public agencies with a primary emphasis in civil litigation.

Amy K. Myers, an attorney with Haskell Slaughter Young & Rediker LLC, presented a seminar entitled “Temporary and Permanent Visa Options for Professionals: An Overview of Strategies” on Feb. 27 at Baptist Campus Ministries in Birmingham. The program discussed key immigration strategies for highly educated foreign nationals seeking to work in the United States.

Sirote & Permutt attorneys Harold Apolinsky and Craig Stephens, along with expert financial planner Stewart Welch, recently co-authored and published the third edition of J.K. Lasser's New Rules for Estate and Tax Planning. Apolinsky is an estate planning professional. Stephens is co-chair of the firm's Estates, Wills, and Trusts practice group. His practice focuses on representing individuals in the estate planning process, with a focus on tax minimization strategies.

MEDIA

Luckie & Co. Senior Vice President Mike Murphy has been awarded a 2009 Silver Medal by the Birmingham chapter of the American Advertising Federation. Murphy was nominated for the award by longtime friends and colleagues at Luckie. Murphy joined Luckie & Forney in 1980 as the head of the South Central Bell advertising account. Today, he leads a department of 15 people who work primarily on direct marketing for AT&T. Murphy is also the head of Luckie & Co.’s San Antonio office, which opened in 2007.

UNIVERSITIES

Gary Warner, the director of research in computer forensics at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, has been named the country’s “Most Popular Security Blogger” after a vote of information-security peers and blog readers in Secure Computing Magazine. Warner’s blog, CyberCrime & Doing Time, is read by thousands each month. Site visitors range from information-security insiders to media members who report on the technology beat to novice computer users concerned about cyber crime threats. Read the blog at http://garwarner.blogspot.com.

University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Nursing professor Marti Rice has been elected president of the Southern Nursing Research Society. Rice joined UAB School of Nursing in 1997 and teaches research methods, statistics and child-health theories and concepts and emerging child-health issues in the Leadership Education in Child Health Nursing program, a grant funded by the Maternal Child Health Bureau.

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Greece’s unions will shut down hospitals, airports and schools today in the country’s second general strike this year to protest Prime Minister George Papandreou’s latest round of budget cuts to curb the European Union’s biggest deficit.

An air-traffic controllers’ walkout will force the cancellation of flights, including 479 from Athens International Airport, the country’s largest. Bus and subway drivers, doctors, power workers, journalists and teachers will stop work to protest 4.8 billion euros ($6.5 billion) of wage cuts and tax increases that have been praised by investors and the European Union. Policemen and firemen will don their uniforms to join a march to parliament.

“The measures taken so far are unjust, demanding sacrifices from workers that aren’t being demanded from the employers, businessmen and bankers that created this crisis,” said Stathis Anestis, spokesman for the GSEE union, which represents 2 million workers in the private sector.

Today’s 24-hour strike is the latest protest against the government since the announcement of a third package of budget measures last week. On March 5, striking workers shut down transport and tried to storm parliament as lawmakers passed the cuts that Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said will show EU allies and investors that Greece is making good on its deficit pledges.

Road Show

Papandreou returns to Athens today after visits to Germany, France and the U.S. to underline the government’s efforts to trim the deficit and drum up support for his call to regulate derivatives. He says the securities have deepened the Greek fiscal crisis, driving up borrowing costs for the country.

Investors and EU officials have ratcheted up pressure on Greece to do more to ensure it meets its deficit target of 8.7 percent of gross domestic product this year, from 12.7 percent in 2009, as the country sinks deeper into recession. Greece will announce final fourth-quarter GDP today after a preliminary report on Feb. 12 showed the economy contracted 2.6 percent in the three months through December from a year earlier.

The Athens benchmark general index has gained 6 percent since the latest measures were announced on March 3, outperforming other western European benchmarks. Bonds have rallied. The yield on the new Greek 10-year benchmark due June 2020 fell 5 basis points yesterday to 6.25 percent, according to EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA prices. The two-year note yield fell 11 basis points to 4 instant credit report.76 percent.

Euro Suffers

Concerns about Greece’s ability to tame the budget gap prompted speculation that the country would need a bailout and could be forced to abandon the single currency. The euro has declined almost 5 percent this year as Greece’s financial woes raised questions about the strength of monetary union.

Greece on Feb. 12 revised down its GDP data for the first three quarters of 2009, with the economy shrinking 2 percent last year compared with a government forecast of a 1.2 percent contraction. Economists say that the tax increases and wage cuts, while necessary, are likely to be a further drag on growth this year, echoing arguments from the labor unions. The Finance Ministry said yesterday that the economy may contract more than 0.8 percent this year, compared with a 0.3 percent contraction forecast in the January deficit plan.

Bank Earnings

Eurobank and National Bank of Greece SA may report their lowest quarterly profit in at least five years as loan losses mount during the economic slump. Eurobank, the country’s second- largest lender, may say today that fourth-quarter net income fell to 3.7 million euros, according to the average of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Papandreou’s approval rating slipped more than 10 percentage points over the last two months as he unveiled the raft of budget measures, a poll showed on March 9. He still commands the support of a majority of Greeks, with 52 percent having a positive opinion of him, according to the survey by GPO pollsters for Mega Television.

Almost 60 percent of those surveyed disapproved of the latest budget cuts and more than 65 percent said the measures were “unfair.” In a Kapa Research poll for To Vima newspaper on March 7, which also showed Papandreou with majority support, 86.9 percent said the measures would provoke social unrest.

“The protests, unrest and violence all this time are instigated by those who are attempting to preserve for their own benefit all the ills that resulted in the Greek people being beggars to international markets,” Dimitris Daskalopoulos, head of the Athens-based Federation of Greek industries said in a speech yesterday. “Who are they calling on us to protest against and demand from? Is it maybe against ourselves?”

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The complex prescription for successful health care investing usually includes the careful consideration of drug pipelines, current-product sales, patent expirations, potential mergers and stock dividends.

Add to that list in 2010 an untested ingredient called health care reform.

"Institutional investors don’t want to see big headlines about the health care industry that they weren’t able to predict," said Les Funtleyder, health care strategist for Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. "So they’re currently operating on the fear of increased regulation or pricing pressures."

If you’re in any way optimistic that the outcome of health care reform won’t be bad for drug companies, the current fears mean that health care stock prices will never be more reasonable than they are now. Prices are depressed and the dividends solid.

"Once we know what the reform will look like in detail we can then move forward," believes Linda Bannister, health care analyst for Edward Jones in St. Louis. "Managed care is the most at risk from health care reform, and then the risk declines from there."

Beyond the potential negatives of reform on drug stocks there may be some long-term positives.

"If 30 million people who didn’t have health insurance were to have it, imagine what that does for a pharmaceutical company," said James Molloy, pharmaceutical analyst for Caris & Co. in Boston. "The plus side of drugs is that most people with insurance never pay full price, but instead pay a co-pay, and you can imagine what kind of car everyone would drive if they had a co-pay for their gas."

While awaiting a clear prognosis on reform, investors must fall back on traditional considerations that tend to favor big pharma that keeps growing bigger.

Merck & Co., whose stock is flat this year after a 25 percent gain last year, is recommended by Bannister and Funtleyder because its strong product pipeline means it won’t require the endless cutting of costs to be profitable. It faces loss of patents on several key drugs in coming years and fierce competition, yet its financial health is strong and its research excellent.

Merck’s launches of diabetes drug Januvia, papillomavirus vaccine Gardasil and HIV drug Isentress have all been successes, while its acquisition of Schering-Plough could result in $3.5 billion in annual cost-saving synergies by 2012. More than half of Merck’s sales are outside the U.S.

Johnson & Johnson, its stock down slightly this year after last year’s 11 percent rise, has suffered through a period of patent expirations, but Bannister believes its drug pipeline coupled with continued efficiencies should accelerate its growth. It benefits from being the world’s largest and most diverse health-care company, with the top or number-two leadership position in 70 percent of its products.

"I cover mostly smaller names of the world and try to find those with downside protection in the form of some core value," said Molloy.

Warner Chilcott Plc, whose stock is down 8 percent this year after last year’s 96 percent gain, is Molloy’s top pick in part because it has massive cash flow. This marketer of women’s health and dermatology products recently purchased Procter & Gamble’s prescription drug business. Its product mix includes hormonal oral contraceptives and hormone therapy products for menopausal symptoms, as well as topical products for psoriasis and an antibiotic for acne.

The other Molloy favorite is Endo Pharmaceutical Holdings Inc., up 10 percent this year after last year’s 21 percent decline. It is a specialty drug company in pain management whose flagship product is the Lidoderm adhesive patch for post-shingle pain. The company, which cross-sells many of its pain-related products, last year acquired Indevus Pharmaceuticals, which specializes in urology and endocrinology.

"My biggest consideration is whether the good news or bad news is factored into the stock price," explained Molloy. "I also ask whether its primary drug has to be a $1 billion drug for the company’s stock price to go higher."

Novartis AG and Bristol Myers Squibb Co. are Funtleyder’s other favorites. Though he says "no one is firing on all cylinders right now," there is little downside, they offer solid dividends and their upside is the enormous potential of their drug pipelines.

Mergers can come fast and furious among drug companies, but is an unpredictable trend that none of the experts expect will take place soon.

"Pharma has been a consolidating industry ever since it was an industry," said Funtleyder, noting that patent expirations and slowing sales drove the most recent mergers and innovation may someday drive the next go-around. "Consolidation happens in waves and last year was a pretty big wave, so we think there will be a break for a couple of years before we see the next wave of consolidation."

Other Bannister choices include Eli Lilly & Co., Pfizer Inc. and Abbott Laboratories.

"If a company like Lilly is unable to execute its pipeline, then at some point it is going to have to make a sizeable acquisition or it will potentially be acquired," concluded Bannister, who considers investment in Lilly a three- to five-year story. "Yet most of these companies’ strategies are licensing deals or small ‘tuck-in’ acquisitions, so I’m not betting on a new wave of industry consolidation."

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Frustration is turning to anger in the ranks of hourly workers at General Motors Co.’s Lockport plant, formerly Delphi Thermal Systems.

The cause is GM’s attempt to gain contract concessions from the United Auto Workers union and its members.

“Definitely there is frustration on the floor. And some are angry, yes. We took a pretty good pay hit a couple years ago,” said Gordie Fletcher, president of UAW Local 686 Unit No. 1 at Lockport.

According to Fletcher, GM wants members to forego a 3.75 percent cost-of-living raise that was scheduled to go into effect in January but which has not been paid.

Also drawing workers’ ire are bonuses that the union says salaried workers have received.

“We don’t think that’s fair. They’re rewarding one group and taking away from another. There should be shared sacrifice,” Fletcher said.

Increasing the frustration is the absence of any new work being assigned to Lockport.

“We want work brought into the plant and aren’t seeing it. Nothing is being said other than that we could have the opportunity to bid on new work – nothing, though, about when or anything else,” Fletcher said.

“That adds to our immense sense of frustration,” he added.

Simmering situation

Anger reportedly is simmering in the ranks of the UAW at the four former Delphi Corp free credit report online. plants that, like Lockport, reverted to GM in 2009 as part of Delphi’s restructuring out of bankruptcy protection.

Much of the opposition comes from workers at plants in Lockport and Rochester, and Saginaw and Grand Rapids, Mich., where UAW members say they are being pushed to renegotiate a contract that included concessions they signed only last year.

“We haven’t seen anything in writing yet, but we know they’re coming for us again,” a GM worker from Grand Rapids recently told a Detroit-based freelance reporter. “We also know they want a ‘no strike’ clause.”

Negotiations (on the concessions) are continuing at each of the plants “a couple times a week and sometimes daily – but there has been very little headway. Actually, I’d classify it as no headway,” Fletcher said.

Unlike previous years, when plants were covered by an industrywide contract negotiated with the Detroit automakers, each former Delphi plant now is responsible for its own labor agreement. The current contract expires in 2011.

A GM spokesman said discussions between GM and the UAW are ongoing and further details are unavailable.

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Australia may resume leading the world in raising borrowing costs, increasing the benchmark interest rate for the fourth time in five meetings, economists say. Traders aren’t so sure.

Governor Glenn Stevens will boost the Reserve Bank of Australia’s overnight cash rate target to 4 percent from 3.75 percent, according to 14 of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Futures traders estimate a 54 percent chance of an increase when the decision is announced at 2:30 p.m. tomorrow in Sydney.

Australia’s economy probably grew the most in 1 1/2 years in the fourth quarter, a separate analyst’s survey ahead of a report on March 3 shows, boosted by A$22 billion ($20 billion) in spending by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on roads and schools. Concerns about sovereign debt in Europe and financial markets turmoil may prompt Stevens to wait another month, some economists say.

“Tomorrow’s decision is close to a coin toss,” said Stephen Walters, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Sydney and the only analyst surveyed by Bloomberg who correctly predicted Stevens’ first rate increase in October. “Rates need to go up, but if they don’t it’s because there’s uncertainty about how the consumer will hold up, sovereign debt, and weak data out of the U.S.”

Group of 20

Boosting the benchmark rate tomorrow would make Stevens the first central banker from a Group of 20 economy to raise borrowing costs this year. He was the first in the world to increase rates three times last quarter, when he raised the key rate in three quarter-point steps to 3.75 percent from a half- century low of 3 percent.

By contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week the world’s largest economy is in a “nascent” recovery that still requires low interest rates. The Fed has kept its benchmark rate close to zero since late 2008. The European Central Bank’s rate is at a record low of 1 percent.

A rebound in Australian consumer confidence, higher business optimism, surging house prices, a drop in unemployment, and signs of an investment boom in resources projects such as Chevron Corp.’s Gorgon natural gas field off Western Australia are forecast by the central bank to fuel an acceleration in Australia’s economy, one of few to skirt last year’s recession.

Australian manufacturing expanded last month at the fastest pace in more than two years, a report showed today. The performance of manufacturing index increased 2.8 points from January to 53.8, Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers said.

‘Gentle Retreat’

Gross domestic product probably rose 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, when it gained 0.2 percent, according to the median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The economy probably expanded 2.4 percent from a year earlier, they said. The figures will be released at 11:30 a.m. on March 3.

“With the shrinking unemployment rate and the likely rebound in December-quarter GDP, we are convinced that another gentle retreat from the accelerator is required,” said Annette Beacher, an economist at TD Securities Ltd. in Singapore.

A report published last week showed business investment jumped in the fourth quarter at almost three times the pace predicted by analysts as companies raised their forecasts for investment plans to the highest level in five years.

Chinese Demand

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, said last month it will increase capital spending on iron-ore mines and oil fields by 63 percent next year to $20.8 billion from $12.8 billion this year.

Rising Chinese demand for Australian iron ore and coal is stoking a record boom in mining investment that may last more than a decade, central bank Deputy Governor Ric Battellino said on Feb guaranteed online payday loans. 23. Investment in new mines, ports and infrastructure may reach 6 percent of GDP, more than double the amount spent during the last resources boom in the late 1970s, he said.

Chevron, Exxon Mobile Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc have this year begun construction on the A$43 billion Gorgon natural- gas venture, the nation’s single-biggest investment project that is forecast to generate as many as 10,000 jobs.

The economy has less scope than previously expected for “robust” growth that doesn’t stoke inflation, Governor Stevens told a parliamentary committee in Canberra on Feb. 19. “Monetary policy must therefore be careful not to overstay a very expansionary setting.”

House Prices

While inflation in Australia cooled in 2009 amidst the global recession, the central bank has pointed to accelerating house prices as a key reason for boosting borrowing costs last quarter.

House prices jumped 11.8 percent in the year through January, according to a Feb. 26 report by real-estate monitoring company RP Data-Rismark, whose figures are used by the central bank in its quarterly monetary policy statement.

Retail sales rose 0.5 percent in January after falling in December for the first time in five months and building approvals gained for a third straight month, according to Bloomberg surveys of analysts ahead of reports to be released tomorrow.

“Australia’s economy is in much better shape than was anticipated when rates were cut to a generation low a year ago,” said Rory Robertson, an economist at Macquarie Group Ltd. in Sydney. “I’ll be very surprised if the Reserve Bank doesn’t decide to continue its ‘normalization’ process” tomorrow.

“After all, it has already paused for nearly 90 days having hiked three times in just 60 days,” he said.

Not Convinced

Still, not all investors are convinced that Stevens and his board will boost borrowing costs in tomorrow’s announcement.

Traders are betting there is a 54 percent chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate increase, according to Bloomberg calculations based on interbank futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange at 8:55 a.m.

Reports published late last week have stoked speculation that the global recovery will be hampered by weak growth among the world’s biggest economies.

Confidence among households and companies in the 16-nation euro economy fell and bank loans to the private sector declined for a fifth month, plus Standard & Poor’s said Feb. 25 that it may soon downgrade Greece again as the country grapples with the region’s largest budget shortfall.

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week, the Labor Department said in Washington.

That contrasts with Australia where reports published last month showed business confidence rebounded and employers added 194,600 jobs in the five months through January, the biggest increase in more than three years that has cut the unemployment rate to an 11-month low of 5.3 percent.

“If anyone is going to boom, surely it’s Australia,” Gerry Harvey, chairman of Australia’s largest electronics retailer Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd., said in a Feb. 26 interview. “We never really went into a recession at all. Our unemployment rate was projected to reach 7, 8, 9, or 10 percent, but it never even got to 6 percent.”

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