My finance view

Mexico’s benchmark local bonds are poised for the biggest annual rally in four years after underperforming regional debt in 2009 as the economy recovers and the peso gains, Stone Harbor Investment Partners said.

The yield on Mexico’s 10 percent peso bond due in December 2024 may plunge about 40 basis points, or 0.40 percentage point, in 2010, to 7.80 percent, said Pablo Cisilino, who manages $11.5 billion in emerging-market assets at Stone Harbor in New York. That would be the biggest one-year drop since 2006.

Mexican domestic debt returned 7.7 percent last year, less than the 10 percent return posted by Latin American local bonds on average, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s ELMI+ index. The region’s second-largest economy will grow 2.95 percent in 2010 after contracting 7 percent last year, the most since 1932, the median forecast of 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey shows.

“People were too pessimistic on the growth outlook for Mexico and very pessimistic about the peso,” Cisilino said. “Things are changing. They’re starting to come around.”

Daily volume in Mexican bonds traded in the secondary interbank market doubled to an average of 9.4 billion pesos in January’s first 14 days from the same period a year earlier, Citigroup Inc. said in a Jan. 19 report.

The peso is up 1.6 percent this year, the second-best performance against the dollar among 16 major currencies, behind South Korea’s Won, on prospects increased demand from the U.S., Mexico’s biggest export market, will help spur the recovery.

‘Strong Recovery’

The currency rose 0.6 percent to 12.8991 per U.S. dollar at 11:02 a.m. New York time. The yield on the 10 percent peso bond due in December 2024 fell four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 8.18 percent, according to Banco Santander SA.

Miguel Messmacher, the chief economist at Mexico’s Finance Ministry, said in an interview Jan. 22 that there is a “very high” probability the country’s economy will grow more than 3 percent this year.

“Exports are showing a very strong recovery,” Messmacher said. “There are no doubts about the stability of external accounts in Mexico.”

Cisilino predicts the yield on Mexico’s 8.5 percent peso bonds maturing in 2018 may drop 50 basis points this year. The yield on the 2024 bonds slid 16 basis points in the past three months to 8.22 percent on Jan. 22, according to Banco Santander SA. The $135 million Stone Harbor Emerging Market Debt Fund that Cisilino helps manage returned 43 percent last year and is up 0.9 percent in 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Borrowing Costs

Peso bonds may also rise because inflation is unlikely to pick up enough in the next six months for central bank Governor Agustin Carstens to raise borrowing costs, according to Alejandro Hernandez, who oversees 13.5 billion pesos ($1 billion) in fixed-income assets at Grupo Financiero Interacciones SA in Mexico City no fax payday loans.

“There could be a rally in the first half of the year” if the bank keeps its inflation forecast and the peso remains strong, Hernandez said.

Citigroup’s Mexico City-based Banamex unit, Banco Santander SA and Bank of Nova Scotia are among six banks that pushed back their forecast for interest-rate increases after Carstens, 51, said this month a stronger peso will curb inflation.

Mexican inflation has absorbed price increases “well,” Carstens said at a conference in Mexico City on Jan. 8. He said the increases are coming from the government raising taxes and state-controlled prices.

“The direct impact on prices is limited, and will be transitory and fade after a year,” Carstens said.

Rate Forecasts

Banamex revised its call for a rate rise to September from May while Santander, Spain-based Banco Santander pushed back its forecast to October from February. Toronto-based Scotiabank shifted its call to April from February. The median estimate of 21 economists in a Jan. 12 Banamex survey is for borrowing costs to start rising in July, four months later than they predicted last month.

Inflation may quicken more than the central bank forecasts, said Ricardo Aguilar, an economist at Invex Casa de Bolsa SA in Mexico City.

“I think they’ll raise forecasts,” said Aguilar, who predicts an inflation rate of 5.44 percent this year and says the bank may increase forecasts in July. “There are other goods and services that could suffer a greater impact than what the market and the bank predict.”

The central bank will probably keep its inflation forecasts unchanged in its quarterly report on Jan. 27, said Luis Flores, an economist at Ixe Grupo Financiero SA in Mexico City. Policy makers said last month the annual inflation rate may climb as high as 4.75 percent in the first three months of 2010, rising to 5 percent in the April-to-July period and 5.25 percent in the second half.

Inflation

The annual inflation rate was 4.17 percent in the first half of January.

“The idea is gaining ground little by little that the bank won’t move rates,” Flores said. “We’ll see more interest in the debt market.”

Mexico’s benchmark Bolsa stock index fell 4.4 percent to 30,830.91 last week. Cemex SAB, the largest cement maker in the Americas, declined 8.1 percent to 13.73 pesos last week. Gruma SAB, Mexico’s largest maker of corn flour for tortillas, retreated 4 percent to 27.4 pesos from 28.55.

The Mexican currency dropped 2.1 percent to 12.9744 pesos per dollar last week.

Yields on Mexico’s benchmark peso bond due 2024 rose seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 8.22 percent, according to Banco Santander SA.

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U.S. venture investment activity in 2009 was as low as its been since 1997, according to a report from the National Venture Capital Association and PricewaterhouseCoopers.

The $17.7 billion invested was down 37 percent from 2008 and the 2,795 deals was down by 30 percent.

There was $6.98 billion invested in Silicon Valley companies, about 40 percent of the U.S. total, down from $10.7 billion in 2008. That is the lowest valley total since the end of the tech bust in 2003 when only $6.4 billion was invested.

The number of deals in the Bay Area dropped to 863 from 1,232 in 2008.

By sector, the report said:

— Biotechnology investing declined in 2009 by 19 percent in both dollars and deals, but was the largest investment sector for the year in terms of dollars with $3.5 billion going into 406 deals.

— The medical device sector fell 27 percent in dollars and 19 percent in deals in 2009, finishing the year as the third largest sector with $2.5 billion going into 309 deals.

— The life sciences sector (biotech and medical devices combined) accounted for 34 percent of all venture capital dollars invested in 2009 compared to 28 percent in 2008 fast cash advance.

— In the software sector, venture capitalists invested $3.1 billion into 619 deals, a 40 percent decline in dollars and a 35 percent decline in deals from 2008. Software was the largest single industry category in terms of deal volume and second largest behind biotechnology in terms of dollars.

— Clean technology investing saw a significant decline in 2009 with $1.9 billion invested in 185 deals. This is a 52 percent decrease in dollars and a 31 percent decline in deal volume from 2008.

— Investing in Internet-specific companies dropped 39 percent to $2.9 billion. There were 629 deals in 2009, down 30 percent.

The industries with the biggest declines were telecommunications (down 67 percent); semiconductors (down 53 percent); and industrial/energy (down 50 percent). The media and entertainment industry decreased 32 percent in terms of dollars and 38 percent in terms of deals with $1.2 billion going into 251 deals in 2009.

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European finance chiefs said Greece may have to step up its efforts to tackle a national fiscal crisis that threatens to spread to other countries across the region.

“The Greek government is aware of the magnitude of the problems facing the country,” Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters in Brussels late yesterday after leading a meeting of euro-area finance ministers that discussed Greece’s budget plan. “The measures are a step in the right direction. We’ll have to see whether they’re enough.”

Greece last week presented its plan to push down a budget deficit that is still more than four times the European Union limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on Jan. 14 turned up the pressure on Greece, saying no nation can expect any “special treatment” after rating downgrades sparked a rout in Greece’s bonds in December and fueled concerns about default.

The Greek government’s latest proposals call for about 10 billion euros ($14.4 billion) of spending cuts and revenue increases this year to bring the budget shortfall from 12.7 percent of output to 8.7 percent by year end.

“The Greek plan leans heavily on the income side,” Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos said after yesterday’s meeting. “It leans heavily on one-time measures,” he said, adding that the program “needs to be more substantial.”

More-Reliable Statistics

The government in Athens presented a “very ambitious” budget-cutting program, Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told reporters yesterday. Greek officials also pledged to provide more-reliable statistics after the EU said earlier this month that the country’s data contained “severe irregularities.”

While the Greek government still has “difficult work to do,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the “serious reforms made to their statistics will help detect and avoid more problems like this in the future.” Bos said a “strong exercise” is required to make Greek data “reliable again.”

Juncker, who serves as Luxembourg’s premier and treasury minister, won a new term as head of the so-called eurogroup at yesterday’s meeting. He was unanimously appointed to a fresh term of two and half years under the Lisbon Treaty, which came into force in December.

The finance chiefs delayed until next month a decision on who will succeed Lucas Papademos as vice president of the European Central Bank, Juncker said. Luxembourg central bank chief Yves Mersch, his Portuguese counterpart Vitor Constancio and ECB Banking Supervision Committee Chairman Peter Praet are the three candidates being considered for the post.

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BRIDGETON — A new Walmart Supercenter would produce an estimated $7 million a year in sales and property tax revenue beginning in 2012, the developer’s proposal says.

Bridgeton Rock Development LLC will present the number Tuesday to a government-appointed TIF Commission as part of the company’s application for up to $8 million in TIF financial benefits.

The $7 million in sales and property taxes is based on projected sales of $82.5 million and would be split among Bridgeton, the state, county and several other taxing jurisdictions. The terms of any TIF arrangement would determine how the money is allocated.

While Bridgeton officials embrace the idea, the proposal has stirred opposition in neighboring St. Ann. Officials there say a supercenter would mean the closing of a smaller, older Walmart on the border of St. Ann and Bridgeton. Ten percent or less of that store is in St. Ann, but it is St. Ann’s second-biggest source of revenue, behind a Shop ‘n Save.

St. Ann’s finances, already staggered by the decline of the Northwest Plaza, cannot take another hit, said city manager Matt Conley. He predicted layoffs of city employees would result, including a loss of police officers.

CHANGE IN TIF LAW

For years, local governments doled out tax-increment financing as a tool to encourage developers to locate in their cities. In 2007, the Missouri Legislature changed the law, taking some authority from the cities and adopting a regional countywide approach. That — combined with the downward spiral of the economy — put a lid on TIF requests.

Walmart’s proposal is only the second in St. Louis County to be considered under the new TIF law, which went into effect Jan. 1, 2008. University City recently approved a mixed-use residential and retail project.

Bridgeton officials say the amount of revenue their city would receive from the supercenter clearly would exceed the amount now realized from the current Walmart, at 10835 St. Charles Rock Road. That store originally was built entirely inside Bridgeton, but was expanded with a garden center that crossed over into St. Ann.

Bridgeton Mayor Conrad Bowers said it was safe to assume his city would gain in sales tax. "The store is going be larger, and have many more products, and the sales will be higher," he said.

Bridgeton Rock Development, an affiliate of THF Realty Inc., will make a formal presentation Tuesday to the Tax-Increment Financing Commission, made up of representatives of St. Louis County, the city and other jurisdictions.

TIF is a tax incentive that allows the developer to divert some funds that would go to taxes initially for development costs.

The developer is proposing to build a 159,000-square-foot Supercenter on about 13 acres on the south side of St guaranteed high risk personal loans. Charles Rock Road at Harmony Lane. The existing store, built in 1988, is almost 120,000 square feet — or about 40,000 square feet smaller.

THF said in a written proposal to the city that it was prepared to move immediately after getting approval. THF said it hoped to have title by this summer and open the Supercenter in the fall of 2011.

In addition to construction jobs, THF said the Supercenter would employ about 300 workers.

In September, Walmart closed another older, smaller store in Town and Country and opened a larger supercenter one mile away in neighboring Manchester. In St. Louis, a Sam’s Club was closed at the MarketPlace and reopened in adjacent Maplewood. Sam’s Club is a division of Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

NO SET POLICY

Wal-Mart officials say the company does not have a policy of closing older stores and rebuilding. In fact, the company is engaged in a large-scale remodeling program it calls "Project Impact."

Ryan Horn, senior manager of public affairs for Wal-Mart, said that Project Impact would fully remodel 80 percent of the Walmart stores in the U.S. in the next five years.

At the same time, the company’s other business strategy is to build new supercenter in some communities to modernize.

In Bridgeton, he said, the Supercenter would allow the company to "add full retail-grocery service and make it a modern Walmart. That’s the crux of it. There’s a real need for it in the Bridgeton-St. Ann area and it’s a way of better servicing our customers."

He said Wal-Mart had no intention of tearing down the existing Walmart in St. Ann and would put it on the market.

"We have a very good track record of marketing our buildings," he said.

Even if the TIF Commission recommends against the TIF request, the Bridgeton City Council could overrule it if six of eight council members agreed.

Bowers added: "In my judgment, I think that it (the supercenter) will happen because I really believe it’s good for the area, it’s good for the county. It’s not like we’re stealing this from another area; the store is in Bridgeton."

Bowers said no major development would occur at the now vacant site — formerly a Grandpa Pigeon’s and then a Value City — without financial assistance in part because of the demolition costs.

"The point is Wal-Mart is going to build a Supercenter and I’m pleased they want to be in Bridgeton and at a site that needs to be redeveloped," Bowers said. "As far as I’m concerned it’s the correct use of a TIF."

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DETROIT–The race to build alternative energy vehicles moved up a notch Monday when Toyota Motor Corp. revealed a hybrid compact for the first time that could move into production within three to five years.

In unveiling a lime green FT-CH "dedicated hybrid," at the less splashy than usual North American International Auto Show, Toyota revealed it also plans to boost its gas-electric fleet with eight new models during the next few years – and none of them will be next-generation versions of current vehicles. The company now has seven hybrids in showrooms.

Toyota, which surpassed General Motors as the auto industry’s world leader last year, said it plans to hit one million in annual worldwide hybrid sales early this decade. Most of those sales will come in North America, where consumers, because of climbing gas prices and climate-change concerns, are starting to shift to smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles that are less damaging to the environment.

Toyota officials said the Japanese automaker’s assault on the alternative energy car market will include the development of a family of vehicles around the Prius, the company’s flagship hybrid model. The Prius, the world’s first hybrid, reached sales of more than two million during the past decade.

Ray Tanguay, a managing officer for parent Toyota and chief executive officer of the company’s Canadian manufacturing operations, said the FT-CH is under consideration for production in Japan in the three- to five-year range.

"It’s a fair expectation," he said.

Tanguay said Toyota is targeting young buyers, or what some company officials call the "8-bit generation," after the microprocessor technology that dominated the budding home video game industry during the 1980s. Pricing would be below the Prius, which now has a base manufacturer’s suggested retail price of about $27,000.

Toyota said the vehicle is lighter and more fuel efficient than the Prius. It is 22 inches shorter than the mid-size Prius but can still seat five people comfortably, the company noted in promotional material.

Prius sales improved marginally in Canada last year to 4,610 despite a sharp decline in the overall market.

Toyota, which struggled like other major automakers because of the world recession last year, wants to offer a variety of hybrid choices, including plug-in models by 2012 and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in 2015.

"We must re-imagine the automobile, a century after its invention, with powertrains that greatly reduce or even eliminate the use of conventional petroleum fuels," said Toyota Canada president Yoichi Tomihara. "The electrification of the automobile is just one of many alternatives and the most successful example of this to date has been the gas-electric hybrid."

However, Toyota and other automakers have acknowledged they face major a challenge to reduce the cost of hybrids and full electric vehicles to make them more affordable and practical to consumers because of battery costs, travel range and charging infrastructure.

Some other automakers promoted their hybrid and electric capabilities at the show. Fiat, Chrysler’s new partner, showed an electric Fiat 500 subcompact, for example, but the company did not disclose any timing for production.

The 22nd annual show’s media preview did not feature the splashy presentations that dominated the event in the past. Instead, companies showed smaller vehicles with an emphasis on fuel economy.

More politicians toured the event since the U.S. and Canadian governments have become shareholders in GM and Chrysler, which got taxpayer loans to stay alive last year.

"It’s not an auto show any more," said veteran industry watcher Dennis DesRosiers. "It’s a political spin show … the industry has to show governments they’re listening."

He said in the U.S., several automakers are working on costly technology to improve fuel economy without downsizing autos because Americans won’t buy enough smaller vehicles.

"The question is will there be enough volume because of the higher prices," he said. "It may take a decade before those prices come down enough."

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Call it financial literacy for the rich.

Bank of Montreal’s private banking division will start offering cross-Canada seminars next month specially designed for affluent adults, including those who marry into money.

The invitation-only program enables a high net-worth client to enrol a spouse or another adult relative in a financial boot camp of sorts that teaches the basics of money management and keeping the family fortune intact.

BMO’s "Financial Focus" part-day seminars tackle a variety of day-to-day issues such as budgeting, mortgages, banking, cash-flow management, credit, investing and estate planning.

It launched the program at the urging of its well-off clients. Many believe a spouse or an adult family member lacks experience with personal finances, said Sara Plant, vice-president and national director of wealth services with BMO Harris Private Banking.

"We’re often having very personal discussions with them about their families. And in those discussions, it comes to light that our clients are experiencing some kind of change or transition," Plant said.

"There may be a marriage, a divorce, a death in the family, an inheritance or selling a business, a retirement – these are sort of transitional changes that we find our clients up against."

A high net-worth client is someone with investable assets of at least $500,000. The new spousal seminars are the latest evolution of a program the bank launched last year to educate rich youth, aged 18 to 25, on money management.

Its staff had received a flood of requests for training. Some clients worried their children would squander inheritances, while others believed their offspring were "under the influence" of an untrustworthy person such as a devious spouse or business partner.

"Individual clients have said, `I know you’ve got one for young people, but do you have one for adults to deal with the issues that we face?’" Plant said.

The bank held a pilot version of its new adult course in Toronto on Nov. 3. Women mostly attended but the seminar is geared toward both sexes. Sessions will be held in major cities from February to April cash advance payday loans.

BMO is not the only bank coaching clients on coping with the pressures of being rich. TD Waterhouse Private Client Services offers special seminars for wealthy women called "Securing Your Future" and a guide book for the children of prosperous clients.

Its high net-worth planning group, meanwhile, provides a "Monte Carlo" analysis to clients – a computer simulation that outlines the trade-offs between short-term wants and long-term capital preservation.

"The first million dollars seems like it will last forever, which isn’t true," said Dave Kelly, group head of the Private Investment Counsel at TD Waterhouse Private Client Services. "For anyone who is new into wealth – whether that’s a lottery win, inheriting or marrying into – … the concept of $5 million, $10 million, $20 million is awfully hard to appreciate when you haven’t had it before."

Last month, RBC Private Banking launched a financial literacy kit for clients’ children, in addition to individual education sessions. "One of their top concerns is preserving wealth for future generations," RBC says.

The Bank of Nova Scotia’s Private Client Group, meanwhile, held a one-day money management pilot program called "Let’s Talk $" for its clients’ adult kids, aged 22 to 27, in November. It will hold at least two more seminars this year and one will be in Toronto.

A number of foreign banks, including Citigroup, JP Morgan and UBS, are also offering so-called "affluenza" courses. Those programs teach skills such as distinguishing between gold diggers and true friends, according to press reports.

Barron’s, meanwhile, ran a 2005 story stating the "Brat Patrol" was the new "battleground" for private bankers. "Among wealthy parents and their bankers, the rallying cry is: `Don’t let the kids become the next Paris Hilton,’" the article said.

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Carolynn Ingerson Hoffman says she knew even as a little girl that she wanted to become a nurse and help sick people get better.

She says she also gained a strong work ethic from her father, who held two or three jobs at a time to earn enough to support a family of six girls and a boy in north St. Louis County.

Hoffman didn’t let a lack of money for education and partial deafness stemming from illnesses get in her way while pursuing her goal of a nursing degree. She got a scholarship and studied hard. Compounding the difficulty was that she was a divorced mother with a young son.

Then, after working as a registered nurse for several years, she pursued a new dream: a business to provide nursing services throughout the St. Louis area.

Her business, now called MediNurse Inc., marks its 25th anniversary this year. The business, originally named CompreHealth Inc., employs more than 100 full- and part-time workers and provides a wide range of nursing services for hospitals, businesses, organizations and individuals.

I understand that you overcame great personal difficulties to get to where you are in life. What is your best advice for others who similarly face great odds?

I guess I would say that growing up in a large family when I did had its challenges, certainly monetarily. I could also take you through the ’60s and ’70s and tell you what it was like at the time being a divorced mother who had to work.

Now, that was a challenge — just getting housing and credit were challenges. I’d like to think, and I do know, that it was because of women like me who opened doors — or crashed through them — that many women today have been able to move forward and upward. We fought the battles so that they could win the war.

My best advice for anyone is to just keep going. Don’t give up, find a way around every obstacle and find the opportunity in every challenge. You have to take control and make things happen — things you want to happen.

How has your hearing loss affected the way you’ve operated your business?

It has affected my career greatly. In the beginning, I was treated with kid gloves — kind of pitied. That surprised me, because I was elated I could even hear! I didn’t consider wearing hearing aids a handicap but rather blessings.

But because everybody seemed to be so sympathetic, I decided to use it to my best advantage in business. I could always get the best seat in a conference room and could say "excuse me" when I needed to think for a moment. I never hid the fact that I was hearing impaired.

I do need the best seating possible to hear. I do have trouble distinguishing words. Now I have to take a second person on marketing calls just to make sure I’m hearing correctly.

The need for nursing services seems to be ever increasing. Did you foresee that trend when you started your business?

In this business and others you have to pay attention to the trends and stay one step ahead of them. We’ve been through shortages, we’ve been through periods of oversupply. Now we’re looking at a national shortage of nurses unlike all others.

It was perfectly predictable. The largest block of nurses, the baby boomers, are retiring. There aren’t enough qualified faculty available in order to admit more nursing students. Nurses have so many more opportunities today other than actual bedside nursing. Add it all up and it spells shortage.

Would the legislation being considered in Congress do enough to address the nation’s health care crisis and bring affordable care to more people?

I haven’t read the Senate bill. I did, however, read the House bill — every page of it — and was appalled. …

Do I think what we are doing is good for health care and this country? No, I do not.

It seems to me we could have purchased insurance for everyone who didn’t have it, pay the premiums each year and it would have been less than this, and the majority would still have their insurance.

What could we do to make health care more affordable? Let us buy the insurance that meets our needs from any state.

Tort reform also is needed. Physicians practice too much defensive litigation to the extent that it impacts every aspect of health care. Simply put, they’re concerned they will be sued.

I have great concerns about what is happening in Washington. I’ve become a political activist at 64!

Even as your business has grown and thrived, do you wish you had done anything differently along the way?

Yes. I was going to franchise and, in fact, had a check for $50,000 in my hand to take to the lawyers to get started. It was the day the stock market crashed (in 1987). I canceled the appointment, which was the right decision at the time. However, I should have done the franchising when conditions were favorable again.

I try not to look back and second-guess myself. I have always been guided by a strong work ethic and commitment to doing what is right, while maintaining a good profit margin. I got these traits from my father.

We have been number one in size, visibility and profitability. I really don’t have the need to do that again.

Don’t get me wrong — I am very committed to being successful. However, being successful means to me helping others as well as guiding my company into the future.

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