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InterContinental Hotels, the world’s biggest hotelier, said a recovery for the industry might be two years away after reporting first-half profit that fell but beat forecasts.

The British group, which operates the InterContinental, Crowne Plaza and Holiday Inn brands, declined to call the bottom of the hotel market as the economic downturn continued to crimp the travel budgets of its key customers from the business community.

“We can’t see any sign of recovery and it could be two years before we get back to levels of travel we were at before,” Chief Executive Andrew Cosslett told a results briefing on Tuesday.

The firm’s shares were down 1 percent at 750.5 pence by 0852 GMT in a slightly firmer overall market.

“This is one of the toughest years on record with little respite and it will continue to be challenging this year and into next,” Cosslett said.

ROOM RATES UNDER PRESSURE

He said forward booking data showed no further deterioration in demand, with July benefiting from stronger leisure demand from holidaymakers, but while occupancy levels were stabilizing, hotel room rates were still very much under pressure.

Analysts expect revenue per available room (RevPAR) to fall in the second half after the British hotelier said the key industry measure fell 16.2 percent in the first half and 18.6 percent in the second quarter.

Although deeper cost cuts helped offset tough trading in the first half, analysts said further cuts are unlikely to offset fully further declines in business as the group raised its cost savings target for 2009 to $80 million from $70 million faxless payday loan online.

“InterContinental says that occupancy has shown signs of stabilization but room rates continue to decline in a very competitive market,” said analyst Ian Rennardson at house broker Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

The hotelier, which typically manages or franchises hotels instead of owning them and earns 70 percent of its profit in the United States, has been hit by the fall in global travel from leisure and business guests, especially since September.

RIVALS CUT FORECASTS

Last month, U.S. group Marriott International reported a plunge in second-quarter profit while it and rival Starwood, which owns the Sheraton brand, cut their 2009 earnings forecasts and reported few signs of recovery.

InterContinental, which runs almost 630,000 rooms in over 4,300 worldwide hotels, reported adjusted operating profit down 38 percent at $179 million for the first half of 2009, while its half-year dividend was unchanged at 12.2 cents.

Continuing operating profit dipped to $174 million, above a consensus of $162 million and a range of $152-$173 million in a survey of eight analysts by Reuters. The firm gave no comparative figure for continuing profit. 

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French industrial production rose more than expected in June and business confidence gained, adding to signs of recovery in the euro region’s second-largest economy.

Output at factories and utilities climbed 0.3 percent from May, when it gained a revised 2.8 percent, Paris-based statistics office Insee said today. Economists had forecast that production would advance 0.2, according to the median estimate of 19 economists polled by Bloomberg News.

“The pickup in industrial production represents a rebound following a period of rapid inventory adjustment,” said Dominique Barbet, an economist at BNP Paribas, in a research note released before the report. “But sustained strong growth will require sustained final demand.”

There have been signs that Europe is starting to pull out of its worst recession since World War II as the global recovery fuels demand for exports. French manufacturing confidence rose in July to the highest level in 11 months, a Bank of France report showed today online payday loans. Still, the economy will probably stagnate in the third quarter, the Bank of France also said.

In France, factory output is being helped by a reduction in inventories and a government payment of 1,000 euros ($1,400) for buyers who trade in cars that are at least 10 years old.

Activity in the French auto industry advanced 5.3 percent in June from May, Insee said. Production of planes, boats and trains, and output of chemicals, pharmaceutical goods and energy also climbed. Production of electronic goods, paper, wood and metal declined.

Manufacturing production, which excludes energy and food, rose 0.4 percent from a month earlier.

Insee initially reported output in May gained 2.6 percent.

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The recession, soaring unemployment and a big workload gave Aimee Grove every reason not to take a job sabbatical this year. She went for it anyway.

She spent a month this winter with her young son and dabbled on a book project. When she returned to her public relations job in mid-March, she felt recharged and excited about getting back to work.

"My boss has given me the gift of time, and that alone makes me so loyal to my firm," said Grove, a vice president at San Francisco-based Allison & Partners.

Asking for a sabbatical may sound taboo when times are tough. But workers shouldn’t pass up the opportunity for a few months off because they fear that being out of sight could compromise job security.
Sabbaticals differ from furloughs, which are often involuntary and unpaid short-time hiatuses. Sabbaticals are typically planned, company-approved leaves of absences to improve one’s skills, do nonprofit work or just relax. They can, but don’t always, include pay and benefits. Things to consider:

KNOW YOUR COMPANY

The good news for workers is that 17 percent of companies are still offering sabbaticals, the same as a year ago. That means companies aren’t taking away what is often deemed as a perk. And perks are often the first things to go when costs are being cut.

Although companies continue to offer sabbaticals, you need to consider whether the time is right. If your company just laid off half of its staff and those remaining are overburdened, asking for a paid sabbatical could seem out of line even if you are entitled to one.

It’s a different story if you work at a company where business seems to be holding up, but there is a slowdown during a certain time of year. For instance, if you work at an accounting firm that is busiest during the winter months, requesting a summer sabbatical wouldn’t seem out of bounds.

UNDERSTAND THE RISKS

Experts agree that sabbaticals are great for retaining employees and boosting loyalty. They give employees something to work toward and a fresh perspective when they return.

Despite those benefits, in today’s economy workers need to be careful totally free credit score. Remember that when you are out of sight, you could be out of mind to your managers. Work that you previously did has to be handled by someone else, and everyone in a recession is trying to hold on to their jobs.

"It’s not professional suicide, but it’s important to examine honestly whether it is an appropriate time," said Elaine Varelas, managing partner at Boston-based Keystone Partners, a career management firm.

BE FLEXIBLE

Asking for a sabbatical is a lot easier in a booming economy. Don’t count on the same right now.

Workers, however, aren’t powerless. If they want to go on a leave, they should propose a reasonable plan.

For instance, instead of getting full pay for a six-month sabbatical, maybe the employee can offer to receive only 50 percent of his or her compensation. Or if workers want to take a year off, they might have to settle for two months instead.

HIGHLIGHT THE BENEFITS

Cathy Benko, vice chairwoman and chief talent officer at Deloitte LLP, said sabbaticals can be seen as an option to downsizing. Instead of cutting ties with an employee just to cut costs, this is a way to continue a relationship that could be important once business rebounds.

"Down markets become up markets," said Benko, who said that forces companies to scramble to restaff.

For instance, she points out that an employee on sabbatical comes back to work already knowing the organization and having the skill set needed to do her job. That means the company doesn’t need to spend to hire and train a new staffer.

In trying to get your company to agree to a sabbatical, play up what you’ll get out of the time away, said Fred Crandall, a senior consultant at Watson Wyatt.

"If you are going to take a sabbatical, make it a win-win," Crandall said. "The best way to spend your time would benefit you and your company."

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NEW YORK–If money and fame are the yardsticks, Annie Leibovitz is one of the most successful photographers of all time. She has a seven-figure salary from Vanity Fair and commands tens of thousands of dollars a day from commercial clients like Louis Vuitton. Her latest book, At Work, made bestseller lists, and an exhibition of her classic images – Demi Moore naked and pregnant, Mikhail Baryshnikov on the beach – is touring the world.

So as the news spread recently that Leibovitz faces extraordinary financial troubles, with the possibility of losing her Civil War-era townhouses in Greenwich Village, a home in upstate New York and the rights to her work, many have wondered, if Annie Leibovitz can’t make it in New York, who can?

Last week, Leibovitz was sued for nonpayment by Art Capital Group, a company that had lent her $25.9 million. It demanded access to her homes so it could begin selling them. Leibovitz had taken out the loan last year, pledging as collateral her properties, negatives and rights to her photographs.

The photographer, 59, declined to comment. Friends and colleagues said that despite her many successes, Leibovitz has been shadowed by a long history of less than careful financial dealings business cards online. In the last two years, she has faced tax liens of $1.5 million and two lawsuits claiming more than $700,000 in outstanding bills for photography services.

"The mind that can take these extraordinary pictures is not necessarily the same mind that is a perfect money manager," said Graydon Carter, the editor of Vanity Fair.

Friends and colleagues agree it is not a taste for luxuries that has caused Leibovitz’s financial difficulties. She has been known for extravagant spending on photo shoots, but these costs are borne by her employers.

"Annie is not an expensive liver herself," said former Vanity Fair editor Tina Brown.

In the last five years, Leibovitz has lost her father, her mother and her companion, the writer Susan Sontag. She has three young daughters and recently oversaw the costly and controversial renovation of three Manhattan townhouses.

Leibovitz has closely guarded the rights to her photos. If she loses control of her archive, her famous portraits may one day be found on postcards in Times Square.

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Missouri’s is Aug. 7-9 and applies to:

— Clothing with a taxable value that is not more than $100

— School supplies, not exceeding $50 per purchase

— Computer software under $350

— Computers and computer equipment that doesn’t cost more than $3,500

Some cities and counties elect not to participate in the holiday, which means buyers must still pay local sales tax cash advance lenders.

For more information, visit www.dor.mo.gov/news/2009/072909.

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The worst bite from the recession into the U.S. economy may well be past — but that doesn’t mean an end to the pain, especially when it comes to job losses.

Today’s report on gross domestic product will offer more clues on where things stand. Many analysts predict the economy shrank at an annual rate of 1.5 percent from April through June. If they’re right, it would mark a vast improvement from the 5.9 percent average drop recorded in the prior six months — the weakest performance in 50 years.

Here are some questions and answers about what to look for in today’s report.

All these numbers are confusing. What does a drop in GDP actually mean?
It means the total value of all goods produced in the U.S. — such as food, clothes, makeup, appliances, cars, industrial machinery, furniture and plastics — went down. In other words, the economy got smaller.

So what is the size of the economy right now?

If you adjust for inflation, it’s $11.4 trillion. If you don’t, it is $14 trillion. Either way, the United States has the world’s largest economy.

If Wall Street forecasters are right about the drop, does it mean the recession ended in the spring?

No. The economy would still be considered in a recession, but the smaller drop in GDP would signal that the downturn lessened, bolstering hopes for a

recovery later this year.

It’s still just an abstract number. Why should I care?

The report provides the most comprehensive snapshot of the country’s economic standing.

Businesses, Wall Street investors, policymakers like Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and politicians like President Barack Obama watch it closely. Their reaction can directly affect your pocketbook — and your job.

For instance, if the report were to show that the economy was much weaker than many anticipated — let’s say more than 3 percent — it could force companies to make additional cuts. If Wall Street gets spooked, your investments take a fresh hit. Credit could become even harder to get.

If the report were much better than expected — if GDP were flat, say — companies might feel like the time is right to boost production, cut fewer workers or maybe hire some back. Also, Wall Street might rally, helping your investments.

What are the main forces behind the expected smaller contraction in the economy?

Here’s one: less severe cuts by businesses cash advance loans. With the recession eating into sales and profits, companies have hunkered down. They have been slashing all kinds of spending and investment.

Economists will be looking for less drastic cuts in the second quarter, although they are likely to still be in double digits.

Other forces expected to help second-quarter GDP: a resumption of spending by the federal government, and an improved trade picture. U.S. exports are expected to fall, but imports should fall even more, narrowing the trade gap in the quarter.

How about consumers?

Consumers probably were cautious. Rising unemployment, cracked nest eggs, lower home values and less generous paychecks have weighed on them. Some analysts believe consumers trimmed spending in the second quarter. Others think it was probably flat.

Is there anything else I should home in on?

Yes, business inventories — which could be the key swing number.

If businesses slash their stockpiles more deeply than expected, the report could show the economy suffering from an unexpectedly big contraction. There’s a silver lining to the scenario of rock-bottom inventories, though. That’s likely to mean the economy will do better in the third quarter because businesses will have to boost production to satisfy customer demand.

How is the economy expected to perform in the July-to-September quarter?

Many analysts believe the economy will start to grow again — perhaps at around a 1.5 percent pace. That would be feeble growth, but it would signal that the recession has ended.

Would that mean that companies will ramp up hiring?

No. Unemployment — now at a 26-year high of 9.5 percent — will keep rising. The Fed says it will top 10 percent at the end of this year. Businesses will be in no mood to beef up hiring until they are certain the recovery has staying power.

Economists said quarterly economic growth of around 3 percent is needed to drive down the unemployment rate.

<digest-hd/>READ THE REPORT

Check this morning for the Gross Domestic Product report.

STLtoday.com

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